Israel’s airstrikes in the early hours of Saturday not only destroyed critical Iranian military infrastructure, they also tarnished the reputation of Russian military equipment, whose prestige had already been tarnished by a poor performance during Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

As the Wall Street Journal reports in its analysis, Iran’s Russian air defense equipment intercepted very few of the missiles fired by Israel, according to American and Israeli officials. Among Iran’s losses in the raids were three Russian S-300 air defense systems, while Israel had destroyed another in April.
The same scene of destruction was seen in the attacks on S-300s by Ukrainian forces fighting Russia, adding to the blow to Moscow’s prestige. Kiev has hit more advanced S-400 systems, and in attacks in May and August it destroyed parts or entire air interceptor systems.

The S-400, first developed in 2007, is Russia’s most advanced air defense equipment, as it is the answer to the American Patriot system. Western military analysts have worried for years that it significantly weakens the long-standing air superiority of NATO countries and their allies. The S-300 system has been repeatedly upgraded since their introduction in the late 1970s.

The impact on Russia’s sales

Both Russian systems are used by some of Moscow’s closest allies, including China and Belarus, and its biggest arms customers, including India, Vietnam and Algeria.

These countries are not necessarily facing potential enemies whose offensive capabilities match Israel’s, the US outlet explains. The precision of Israel’s attacks over the weekend against S-300 systems and critical parts of Tehran’s missile production facilities once again demonstrated Israel’s deep intelligence penetration into Iran, which was also underscored by the assassination of Hamas’s political chief in Tehran in August, but also from previous strikes on its nuclear program.

No missile shield is impenetrable. Russia has downed at least one Patriot system in Ukraine. Israel has the world’s most advanced missile defense system, but Iran and its allies managed to bypass it during this year’s missile and drone attack.

The performance of the Russian systems is also unlikely to have a direct impact on Moscow’s military exports, because it uses the weapons it produces itself, even disappointing some customers. Russian arms exports have fallen since the large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Moscow’s arms sales fell 52 percent last year from 2022, according to SIPRI, based on its own calculations of export values. A low volume of pending orders “suggests that Russian arms exports are likely to remain well below their 2014-18 level, at least in the short term,” a SIPRI report said.

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a public relations disaster for its defense industry,” said Ian Storey, senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, a think tank in Singapore. “Russia’s traditional customers have lost confidence in the country’s defense industry and are looking for new suppliers,” he said.
Russia’s biggest customers have few short-term alternatives, so they are pressing Moscow for details on deliveries, analysts say.

“You’re going to ask your supplier questions” about performance levels and measures to improve it, said Douglas Barry, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Security Studies, a think tank in London.

Potential beneficiaries of Russia’s troubles are South Korea, Israel, the US and China, analysts say.

Among Russia’s most critical customers – and most exposed – is India, which accounted for more than a third of Russia’s military purchases between 2019 and last year, according to SIPRI. India has been among Moscow’s top clients since the Cold War, when relations with the Soviet Union were strained.

India has received three S-400 systems out of the five it ordered. The delivered units are installed along the borders with Pakistan and China.

The Indian Air Force expects Russia to deliver the remaining two systems by the end of next year. Indian authorities have pressed Moscow on several occasions to speed up delivery of the system, which officials say has been delayed by the war in Ukraine.

Indian officials said they did not see Israel’s strike on Iran as a warning to them.

“There is no comparison of the S-400 with any other air defense system in the world,” said a serving Indian security official. “What Iran has is an inferior version. There is no concern for us about its advanced technology or performance,” the official said of the S-400s.

However, India has in recent years reduced purchases of Russian weapons and focused on developing its own systems, independently and in cooperation with other countries. India’s imports of Russian military equipment in the period from 2019 to 2023 fell by 34% from the previous five years, according to SIPRI.

India relies on the S-400 as a long-range interceptor system. For short and medium range systems it uses equipment developed domestically and some in cooperation with Israel.

Indian authorities are also locally developing a long-range surface-to-air missile system that is expected to have a range similar to the S-400 system, according to security officials.

Israel’s strike on Iran is taking place in India, another security official said. “But as far as India is concerned, it is not solely dependent on Russian technology.”