Polls have begun to close in the first US states – Kentucky and Indiana that were almost certainly in Republican hands – and anxiety is mounting as early estimates continue to speak of a close fight. Optimism continues to prevail in the Democratic and Republican staffs, with Trump’s entourage leaking that he is preparing his victory speech with Elon Musk.

No pre-song

If someone wants to look for positive elements from the whole process, they can focus on the fact that the elections took place without particular problems or dramas, despite the climate of intense polarization, the conspiracy theories circulating from time to time, and also the fears of outside interventions.

The interesting thing is, however, that according to a CNN poll, the voters had democracy (35%) and the economy (31%) as the main issues that influenced their choice. Of course, this is quite vague and has to do with the hiring practices of each voter. 73% of Americans believe that democracy is under threat in the country. Apparently some people talking about “democracy” may have had in mind the myth of the “stolen victory” of 2020 and as “economy” they put their hopes in a wealth tycoon.

Void on Biden

The fact that 58% of voters said they do not approve of Joe Biden’s policy is also impressive. If the majority of them saw the candidacy of Kamala Harris as a continuation of the current president, then this was a serious disadvantage for the Democratic candidate. They had placed a lot of hope in the staff of the current vice-president and in the votes of young people.

Decided early on

The Obamas’ dramatic last-minute “go vote like your life depended on it” pleas to turn the tide are illustrative. However, only 3% said they had decided what they would vote for in the last three days. An overwhelming 80% had already decided on his choice before September. It is also indicative that of the 161 million registered voters, 78 million had made use of the right to vote early.

Critical States

DW spoke with Walter Olsen, a fellow at the Cato Institute think tank, who says two states he would consider early on election night could be Florida and New Hampshire. Both states are giving results early, with Florida leaning toward Donald Trump and New Hampshire leaning toward Kamala Harris.

“If these expected victories do not come, then the candidate has a lot to worry about,” he says. Florida, moreover, is a state with many Hispanic voters, and Democrats are hoping that shifts in the Hispanic vote over the past two weeks might put them over the top, not necessarily in Florida, but in states like Pennsylvania.”

“Florida could tell a part of the story on that.”