The new coronavirus pandemic caused more than 18 million deaths worldwide between the beginning of 2020 and the end of 2021, or in other words more than three times the official figure, according to a study published today by the scientific review The Lancet.
“Official statistics on COVID-19 deaths provide only a partial picture of the true” mortality rate “of the pandemic worldwide, the study authors said. COVID-19 was probably one of the leading causes of death in 2020 and 2021 on the planet, they estimate.
Although according to official figures the worldwide deaths due to the pandemic between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2021 were 5.94 million, several studies have characterized this report as very underestimated and have attempted to shed more light on the health crisis.
The latest, published today by The Lancet, estimates that the number of deaths due to COVID-19 during this period reached 18.2 million, which is more than three times the official figure, based on data on excess mortality.
The term over-mortality refers to the ratio of deaths over a period of time, regardless of the cause, to the number of deaths expected, based on data for previous similar periods.
In addition to a database of surplus mortality, the study’s authors also developed various models to predict mortality if the pandemic had not occurred, to counteract the lack of comprehensive and reliable data in several countries.
“Of the 12.3 million additional deaths compared to the estimated deaths due to COVID-19, most were probably due to infection with SARS-CoV-2,” they note.
The chaotic difference between over-mortality and officially recorded deaths due to COVID-19 is probably explained by the fact that many cases of coronavirus infection and / or increased deaths from other diseases due to altered behavior or in health systems due to the pandemic, the researchers point out.
By region, the Andean countries in Latin America, the countries of Eastern and Central Europe, and southern sub-Saharan Africa recorded the highest redundancy rates in 2020-2021.
Among the countries hardest hit by the pandemic, Bolivia has the highest rate of over-mortality. In contrast, in countries such as Australia and New Zealand, surplus mortality appears to be lower than in the years before the pandemic broke out.
The authors of the study acknowledge that their work has some limitations and consider it necessary to continue the scientific work to determine exactly what is the excess mortality that is directly due to COVID-19.
Among other studies, the weekly The Economist published in mid-November an estimate that pandemic death toll had risen to 17 million worldwide, based mainly on a database of two researchers.
The World Health Organization estimates that at this stage, given the surplus mortality directly and indirectly linked to the pandemic, the actual death toll in the world may be double that.
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