The upheaval from the triumphant victory of Donald Trump in the USA, but also from the government crisis in Germany, has turned the spotlight away from the other big patient of the Eurozone. However, France is always a boiling cauldron, after the imposition by Emmanuel Macron of a government that in no way corresponds to the result of the last elections, but above all not to the prevailing trends of public opinion.

Markets worry, citizens grumble

One cannot ignore the downgrading of the country’s economy by the international houses, nor the yellow card of the Commission for the high deficit, which will fluctuate at 6%, the second highest in the Eurozone after Italy, which in any case is the another ‘naughty’ child of the EU in terms of its fiscal ‘behaviour’.

The country’s prime minister, Michel Barnier, has presented a budget brimming with promises, predicting spending cuts of around 41 billion euros and increasing tax revenue by another 20 billion. Parliament, but even if this happens, if it can be implemented, since much of what he mentions seems based on another virtual reality. However, neither the Left nor the extreme right of Le Pen show a willingness to agree to such large cuts amid a wider popular discontent. And houses abroad leave suspicions of further downgrading of the French economy.

Emmanuel the carefree

Macron himself seems to be living in a bubble, showing that he is not worried about all this and occasionally letting it be understood that he is betting both on the help of the French Christine Lagarde, head of the European Central Bank, but also on the fact that the new Commission will not want for political reasons to come into conflict with his own country, especially now that Germany seems to be faltering. Macron’s “recklessness” seems to stem from a belief in the unwritten rule, once formulated by Jean-Claude Juncker: “No matter how France deviates, no one will turn against it because it is precisely France.”

The scathing comment of the Neue Zürcher Zeitung is typical, noting that “even moderate middle-class strata understand that the president’s advertising talent is primarily limited to his own personal direction.”

Many, for example, wonder where the additional billions that would be required to implement the ambitious plans of the occupant of the Champs-Elysées and would-be “reformer of Europe” to strengthen EU military cooperation or even to send forces to Ukraine, could be found. which, in addition to political costs, would also have huge economic costs.

Bankers are ringing bells

The president of the Central Bank of France, Villeroy de Gallo, who also acts as a kind of mediator between the ECB and Brussels, does not stop warning about the dangers that are coming for the European economies and asking the French to “tighten the belt”, which neither the public likes to hear, nor the rulers to talk about it. Especially when the majority of them are hanging on by a thread.

De Gallo has warned in the past about wrong economic policy choices and many neutral analysts believe France is now paying for the missteps of former finance minister Bruno Le Maire, who is also blamed on Mr Macron. The latter seems to be just trying to buy time, before the next crisis with a society hostile to him and a government with figures from the bottom shelf of the political market, who have neither the prestige nor the punch to explain and implement if necessary even unpopular measures.

November 19 is eagerly awaited, as the final vote on the 2025 finance bill is scheduled to be then sent to the Senate for consideration, with the process being completed by December 21, the constitutional deadline. Christmas can turn out to be very warm in Paris.