How could the war develop from now on and what are the implications – Could it lead to an escalation of the war?
Just two months before the current US president handed over power to Donald Trump, Joe Biden gave the “green light” for Ukraine to use long-range missiles for the first time to strike targets inside Russia.
The question is because the US allowed it finally;
Ukraine has been using the Army Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS, on Russian targets in occupied Ukrainian territory for more than a year. It has used ATACMS to strike air bases in the occupied Crimean peninsula and military positions in the Zaporizhia region. But the US has never allowed Kiev to use its long-range missiles inside Russia – until now.
Lockheed Martin ballistic missiles they are some of the most powerful yet delivered to Ukraine, capable of traveling up to 300 kilometers (186 miles).
So far, however, Ukraine had not received the “ok” for the use of such weapons inside Russia, typically saying that without them it is like fighting with one hand tied behind its back.
However, the change in policy today is reportedly coming in response to the recent deployment of North Korean troops they support Russia in the border region of Kursk, where Ukraine has seized territory since August.
What effects will the missiles have?
Ukraine will now be able to strike targets inside Russia, probably initially around the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces hold more than 1,000 square kilometers of territory.
Ukrainian and US officials expect a counteroffensive by Russian and North Korean troops to retake territory in Kursk.
Ukraine can use ATACMS to defend against attack by targeting Russian positions, including military bases, infrastructure and ammunition storage.
But the supply of missiles probably it will not be enough to turn the tide of the war. Russian military equipment has already been moved to airfields further inside Russia pending such a decision.
However, the weapons may give Ukraine some leverage at a time when Russian troops are gaining ground in the east of the country and their morale is low.
“I don’t think it will be decisive. However, it is a belated symbolic decision to raise the stakes and show military support in Ukraine. It may increase the cost of the war for Russia,” a Western diplomat in Kiev told the BBC, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.
There are also questions about how much ammunition will be provided, said Evelyn Farkas, who served as deputy assistant secretary of defense in the Obama administration.
“The question is, of course, how many missiles do they have? We have heard that the Pentagon has warned that there are not many of these missiles available to Ukraine.”
Farkas added that ATACMS could to have a “positive psychological impact” on Ukraine, if used to strike targets such as the Kerch Bridge, which connects Crimea to mainland Russia.
This US decision will also have a further negative effect, comments the BBC. They enable the UK and France to grant Ukraine permission to use Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia. The Storm Shadow is a Franco-British long-range cruise missile with similar capabilities to the US ATACMS.
Could it lead to an escalation of the war?
The Biden administration has refused for months to authorize Ukraine to strike Russia with long-range missiles, fearing an escalation of the conflict.
Vladimir Putin has warned against using Western weapons to strike Russia, saying Moscow would see it as “direct involvement” of NATO countries in the war in Ukraine.
“It would fundamentally change the very essence, the nature of the conflict,” Putin said in September. “This will mean that NATO countries, the US and European states, are at war with Russia.”
Kurt Volker, former US ambassador to NATO, said: “By limiting the scope of Ukraine’s use of US weapons, the US has unjustifiably imposed unilateral restrictions on Ukraine’s self-defense.”
He added that the decision to limit the use of ATACMS was “completely arbitrary and was made out of fear that it would pose a ‘challenge'” to Russia. However, it is wrong to publicize such a change, as it gives Russia advance notice of possible Ukrainian strikes.”
How will Donald Trump react?
The elephant in the room is that Biden, commenting on the report, has just two months left in office before handing the baton to President-elect Donald Trump.
Trump has not said whether he will continue this policy. But some of his closest allies have already criticized it.
Donald Trump Jr., Trump’s son, wrote on social media: “The military industrial complex seems to want to make sure WW3 starts before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives.”
Trump has not specified what policy he will pursue on the war in Ukraine, beyond promising to end the conflict within a day, though he never specified how he would do so. Democratic opponents have also accused him of sympathizing with Putin, for whom he has repeatedly expressed admiration.
Many of Trump’s top officials, such as Vice President-elect JD Vance, say the US should not provide any more military aid to Ukraine. But there are those who have a different opinion. The SNational Security Adviser Michael Waltz argued that the US could speed up arms deliveries to Ukraine to force Russia to negotiate.
It is unclear which path the president-elect will take, but many in Ukraine fear that will cut off arms deliveries, including ATACMS.
“We are worried. We hope that [ο Τραμπ] will not overturn [την απόφαση]Oleksiy Goncharenko, a Ukrainian MP, told the BBC.
Source :Skai
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