War in Ukraine: Eastern front could ‘collapse’ for Kiev

The Ukraine front could “collapse” as Russian territorial gains increase, analysts warn, according to the BBC.

President Biden’s decision to provide anti-personnel mines to Ukraine and allow long-range missiles to be used on Russian soil comes as the Russian military accelerates gains on the front lines.

Figures from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) show that Russia has gained almost six times more ground in 2024 than in 2023, and is advancing on key Ukrainian logistics hubs in the eastern Donbass region.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s surprise invasion of Russia’s Kursk region falters. Russian troops repulsed the Kiev offensive. Analysts have questioned the success of the attack, with one calling it a “strategic disaster” given the manpower shortages Ukraine faces.

These developments come at a time of heightened uncertainty with a second Donald Trump administration looming. The US president-elect has pledged to end the war when he takes office in January, with some fearing he could end future military aid to Ukraine.

Russia advances in eastern Ukraine

In the early months of the war the front line moved quickly, with Russia quickly gaining ground before being pushed back by a Ukrainian counterattack. But in 2023 none of the
two sides did not make significant gains – with the conflict largely deadlocked.

But new ISW data suggests the story in 2024 is more favorable for Russia. ISW bases its analysis on confirmed social media footage and reports of troop movements.

ISW figures show that Moscow’s forces have seized about 2,700 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory so far this year, compared to just 465 square kilometers in total in 2023, a nearly six-fold increase.

Dr Marina Miron, a defense researcher at Kings College London, told the BBC there was a chance Ukraine’s eastern front would “really collapse” if Russia continued to advance at this rate.

More than 1,000 square kilometers were captured between September 1 and November 3, demonstrating that the Russian advance has accelerated in recent months. Two areas bearing the brunt of these advances are Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region and Kurakovo, which is the “first step” for the key logistical hub of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region.

Kupyansk and the areas east of the Oskil River were liberated in the Kharkiv offensive in 2022, but Russia gradually recaptured the latter area. In a recent update, the UK Ministry of Defense said Russian forces were trying to breach the lines in the northeastern suburbs of the city.

Footage published on November 13 and verified by the BBC is consistent with this analysis. The video shows a convoy of Russian armored vehicles being pushed back after coming within 4km of the main bridge in Kupyansk, the last major road crossing in the region.

While these reports don’t necessarily translate to control of an area, they are indicative of how much pressure Ukraine’s defensive line is under.

Elsewhere, since recapturing the town of Volendar in October – an elevated position that sits above key supply lines and for which Moscow spent two years fighting – Russia has poured resources into Kurakovo.

Ukrainian forces defending the city have so far repelled attacks to the south and east. But the front line is closing in, with Russia also threatening to encircle the defenders from the north and west.

Colonel Yevgeny Shasiko, former head of strategic communications of Ukraine’s general staff, said Russia was placing “powerful jaws” around the flanks of a city whose defenses were slowly being “grinded” until they collapsed.

Footage from the city verified by the BBC showed massive devastation, with homes heavily damaged.

ISW concludes that Moscow now owns a total of 110,649 square kilometers in Ukraine. By comparison, Ukrainian forces captured just over 1,171 square kilometers in the first month of their invasion of Kursk – although Russian forces have now recaptured almost half of that territory.

Despite its territorial gains, Russia’s progress has come at a huge cost.

Analysis by BBC Russian has confirmed that at least 78,329 soldiers have been killed since Russia launched its all-out invasion in February 2022, with Moscow’s losses from September to November this year more than one and a half times higher compared to the same period in 2023.

Casualties are compounded by the “meat machine” tactic said to be favored by Russian commanders – that is, waves of recruits being thrown towards Ukrainian positions in an attempt to wear down opposing troops.

Despite Russian advances, some experts have noted that the actual speed of the offensive is still slow. David Handelman, a military analyst, estimated that Ukrainian troops in the east were withdrawing slowly to conserve manpower and resources, rather than suffer a wider collapse.

The “Gambi” of Kursk

Ukraine launched its surprise invasion of the Russian Kursk region in August. It is unclear why Russia was slow to respond to the operation, in which Kiev troops quickly gained control of a number of border communities.

Dr. Miron that while the Kremlin would suffer an internal political cost for as long as the invasion continued, Russia’s general staff was willing to keep Ukrainian forces tied down in Kursk as its forces made gains elsewhere along the front line.

But Moscow is now clearly intent on reclaiming the territory it lost on its own soil. About 50,000 troops have been deployed.

Verified videos from the Kursk region show heavy fighting taking place – and Russia suffering significant losses in manpower and equipment. But the data clearly shows that Ukraine’s control over the region is shrinking.

Since early October, Russian counter-offensives have retaken about 593 square kilometers of territory in the border region, according to ISW data.

The Kursk invasion was initially a major morale boon for Ukraine at a time of serious setbacks, and the audacity of the operation was a reminder of its ability to surprise and damage its enemy.

But Dr Miron noted that while the Kursk invasion was a moment of “tactical brilliance”, it was also a “strategic disaster” for Ukraine.

“The whole idea was to maybe gain some political leverage in possible negotiations, but militarily to withdraw Russian forces from Donbass to liberate Kursk. And what we see is that the Ukrainian units are tied up there.”

Some of Kiev’s most experienced and effective units are known to be fighting in Kursk. Motorized units equipped with state-of-the-art Western armored vehicles are also involved in the attack.

Ukrainian leaders indicated they hoped the invasion would force Moscow to divert some of its forces from eastern Ukraine, slowing the Russian advance there. Instead, experts say most of the reinforcements have flown into Kursk from places in Ukraine where the fighting is less intense.

“According to Ukrainian soldiers from different parts of the front, Russian troops reinforcing Kursk have withdrawn mainly from Kherson and Zaporizhia,” Yuri Klavilyer, a terrain analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told the BBC.

“The fighting there is not as intense as in the East. Some Russian units that attacked Kharkiv were also redirected to Kursk as Ukraine managed to stop the Russian offensive there,” he added.

Territorial gains for both sides are significant, lending strength to their position in any potential negotiations. While no peace talks have been discussed, US President-elect Trump has claimed he could end the war within 24 hours, without saying exactly how.

Fears remain in Ukraine that Trump could cut military aid as a means of forcing Kiev to the negotiating table.

President Volodymyr Zelensky told Fox News on Tuesday, “I think we’re going to lose [τον πόλεμο]» if the cuts pass.

“We have our production, but it’s not enough to prevail and I think it’s not enough to survive,” he admitted.

On Tuesday, Ukraine fired long-range missiles (ATACMS) supplied by the US to Russia for the first time – a day after Washington gave it permission to do so. It is alleged that the decision was made in part to help Ukraine retain part of the Kursk region, to be used as a bargaining chip in future negotiations. On Wednesday, the outgoing Biden administration sent anti-personnel mines to Kiev, while the Ukrainians also fired British long-range Storm Shadow missiles for the first time.

Dr Miron told the BBC that Russia’s progress had given her a stronger negotiating position as Trump’s new foreign policy team prepares to take office.

“That [εδάφη] they control right now, it gives them some advantage,” he said. “If we were to enter into negotiations, I am sure that, as the Russian side emphasized, ‘we will do it based on the configuration of the battlefield.’

“From the Russian point of view, they have much better ‘papers’ than the Ukrainians.”