By Andreas Kluth*

The Military Industrial Complex as represented by the current president of the USA Joe Biden, “seems like he wants to make sure WW3 starts before my father has a chance to make peace and save lives”. This is what Donald Trump Jr., son of the president-elect of the same name, wrote on the X platform (formerly Twitter). And his other supporters Trump have the same opinion: “Nobody expected Joe Biden to ESCALATE the war on Ukraine during the transition period. It’s like starting a whole new war.”

Their outrage, whether real or feigned, is about Biden’s green light for the Ukrainians to launch American-made missiles much deeper into Russia than has been allowed until now, in self-defense against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s de facto war of extermination.

In particular, Biden authorized the Ukrainians to use the Army’s Anti-Aircraft Missile Systems, or ATACMS, which have a range of up to 190 miles. This week, the Ukrainians conducted their first attack in Russia itself (not just the Russian-occupied territories), hitting an ammunition depot. The French and British, who have supplied the Ukrainians with their own versions of long-range weapons, can now follow Biden’s lead and lift Kiev’s restrictions (p.s. Note that on Wednesday, after ATACMS, Ukraine also fired British Storm Shadow missiles into Russia).

Biden turn

Biden’s “yes” was long overdue, but the endorsement alone will not have a decisive military impact. (Giving Ukraine other weapons in small supplies, from Western tanks to F-16s, also did not turn the war in Ukraine’s favor.) But is it “escalation” or an attempt to spoil Trump’s chances of settling a war he has unrealistically promised to end in a day?

Ostensibly the reason for Biden’s turn is that Putin escalated the war firstinviting his new North Korean allies to join Russia in the war. Russians and North Koreans are preparing for a counterattack aimed at recapturing the Russian region of Kursk. The Russians have also stepped up their bombing of Ukrainian infrastructure with the aim of making the Winter more unbearable, cold and deadly for Ukrainians.

Whether Biden could have previously put the Ukrainians in a better strategic position is a difficult questionif he would have let them attack with ATACMS sooner, or if he could have provided all American assistance more quickly and decisively. The reason for his reticence, however, has always been clear: Biden’s ultimate goal was to avoid crossing Putin’s “red lines” and provoking a direct confrontation between American and Russian forces, or even, God forbid, a Russian attack Ukraine or the West with conventional nuclear weapons.

Nuclear threats

For a thousand days (that is, since the beginning of the Russian invasion), Washington and other NATO member countries have been questioning whether Putin’s nuclear threats are credible. (I have argued that they certainly cannot be ignored.) In any case, it is a fact that Putin in recent years has modified Russia’s nuclear doctrine, making it more aggressive and more tailored to the current war and the current situation.

In September he said that Moscow could respond with nuclear weapons “an attack against Russia by any non-nuclear state”if the attacker has “participating in or supporting a nuclear state”. This rhetoric clearly refers to Ukraine and its nuclear-armed allies in the US, UK and France. This week, Putin also signed the relevant updated new nuclear doctrine.

The right timing and the negotiating papers

What Biden understands, however, is that timing matters. Right now, Putin is trying to be as aggressive and powerful as possible in Ukraine to prepare for the new and unpredictable era of geopolitics that will begin on the day of the US inauguration on January 20. The more territory and other levers of pressure Putin has in his hands, the better his negotiating position will be not so much vis-à-vis Kiev as vis-à-vis Trump.

At the same time, Putin would never choose the next two months to go nuclear. To do so would lose the support of China, which he has so carefully built up – and also the support of the Global South, from India to Africa, indeed most of the world. It would also destroy the relationship with Trump that both powerful men consider so essential.

Trump’s entire national security rhetoric rests on the phrase “peace through strength.” Therefore, it would have to respond to even a limited Russian nuclear bomb with demonstrable military might. Putin does not want to raise the tone so much. If he retaliates against ATACMS before Trump’s inauguration, he will likely do so with more hybrid warfare operations. (This week, someone cut two submarine cables connecting NATO countries in the Baltic).

What Trump Jr. and other members of the transition team don’t seem to realize is that Biden, by deciding on ATACMS, did his successor a strategic favor. It responded to Putin’s escalation in a measured way and made the Ukrainians somewhat stronger in the face of an impending Russian attack. This step saves Trump from having to escalate later and instead gives him “paperwork” to renegotiate starting in the new year.

An alternative theory about the ATACMS license is that it is part of an effort by Biden to “shield” US policy against Trump. For example, the government is accelerating the remaining $6 billion in aid. dollars to Ukraine that Congress has approved so Trump doesn’t cut it off. But Biden knows you can’t shield anything against an incoming president known for his unpredictable nature.

The most plausible explanation is that Biden is acting responsibly, as one president passes the baton to another, even one he loathes. As part of that delivery, Biden is giving Trump options, in the form of Ukrainian assets that will become part of future peace negotiations.

Putin certainly understands that and he doesn’t like it. The Russian president hopes Trump will sacrifice a weakened Ukraine so the US, Russia and other countries can carve up the world into spheres of influence. Any aid to Ukraine would make this more difficult.

The only people who don’t understand the strategic purpose of authorizing the use of ATACMS – or pretend they don’t because they’re still on the campaign trail – are Trump Jr. and his minions. By making the Ukrainians stronger, Biden is helping Trump force Putin to negotiate for real, not for show. Trump, who fancies himself a negotiator, should be grateful.

*Andreas Kluth is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion and covers US diplomacy, national security and geopolitics. Previously, he was editor-in-chief of Handelsblatt Global and a columnist for the Economist.