In Romania there is more and more political calm in the context of Europe in recent years. However, the country is the sixth largest in the European Union in terms of population. And, as it is on the south-east side of the EU and NATO, it is of huge strategic importance.

Take for example its policy towards Russia and Ukraine: Romania has by far the longest border of any EU country with Ukraine, which is under attack. It is also the most important base for US and other NATO forces in southeastern Europe. And it faces military threats like no other EU country: Russian Shahed drones regularly explode over Romanian territory. In 2023, the Bucharest government even had air raid shelters built for residents in the Danube Delta. However, unlike Poland or the Baltic states, Romania is hardly heard in discussions about dealing with Russia and supporting Ukraine.

The widespread silence on this and other important political issues is largely due to President Klaus Iohannis, who has been in power for ten years. He has made silence and absence his trademark in both domestic and foreign policy – in a country where the president is a key player in foreign policy under the Constitution and is considered the state’s most important voice in domestic policy.

Lots of promises, then passivity

Against this backdrop, an electoral marathon will be held in Romania in the coming weeks: the first round of presidential elections next Sunday (November 24, 2024), parliamentary elections a week later (December 1, 2024) and the second round of presidential elections a week later (December 8, 2024) if, as expected, none of the candidates achieves an absolute majority in the first round.

Klaus Johannis is not allowed to stand again after serving two terms. It enjoys almost no political or social support anyway. Ten years ago, he ran for office on the grand promise of sweeping reforms and ridding the state of evils like corruption. But the German-born Iohannis, a former successful mayor in the quiet Transylvanian town of Sibiu, never found his footing in the presidential office and the political jungle of Bucharest and soon sank into passivity.

To a large extent, this balance sheet led to the rise of nationalist and anti-reform forces. The favorite of the presidential elections is the current Prime Minister Marcel Tsiolakou from the Social Democratic Party (PSD). In 1990, with a different name at the time, it was a meeting point for the executives of the overthrown Ceausescu regime. It dominated Romanian political life for three and a half decades and is therefore the only successor party in the former Eastern bloc countries that has not faded into insignificance.

Prime Minister with corruption scandals

Contrary to what its name suggests, the PSD does not have a social democratic orientation, but mainly represents right-wing populist and nationalist positions mixed with left-wing social rhetoric. For many urban Romanians, the PSD embodies corruption and corrupt networks in the post-communist state. In the rural areas of eastern and southern Romania, however, the PSD remains the leading political force.

The prime minister, who polls around 24% in the presidential election, is himself a veteran of the party and has risen from a provincial politician in the early 1990s to a PSD leader. Tsiolakou represents the conservative-nationalist wing of the party and has been known several times for alleged corruption scandals, including the recent affair surrounding a luxury trip. For many Romanians, however, he embodies the PSD’s type of predictable, moderate politician who guarantees stability and calm and does not forget the “little people” despite possible corruption scandals.

If Ciolacu becomes president, we cannot expect an anti-European turn as in Orban’s Hungary, but rather that Romania will remain a loyal ally in the EU and NATO abroad, while at home the necessary reforms in the justice and combat sector will be stopped of corruption.

The Moscow candidate?

The situation is different in the case of a politician who gathers around 15%: George Simeon, leader of the “Alliance for the Unity of Romanians” (AUR). Simeon is ultra-nationalist and anti-European, but he has little in common with the previous two generations of Romanian nationalists, who were strongly rooted in the past. Simeon has learned a lot from politicians such as Donald Trump and Viktor Orbán, and has gained notoriety mainly through his social media activities. He has been banned from entering the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine because he claims parts of both countries’ territories for Romania. Simeon is suspected of having connections with the Russian intelligence services, but there is no evidence of this.

Elena Lasconi, the leader of the liberal Union Save Romania (USR) party, which also has around 15%, is competing with Simeon for second place. The former star journalist and presenter of a private TV channel entered politics a few years ago and became the mayor of the small town of Kabulung in southern Romania.

Political stunts and family drama

Her party, USR, was established about a decade ago as an anti-corruption and civic movement and supported progressive-liberal policies. For some years now, however, the USR has been mired in the entanglements of party politics and recurring disputes over direction. The USR after just ten months left in a dispute over judicial reforms the governing coalition formed after the 2020 elections with the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Hungarian minority party UDMR.

Elena Lasconi’s political style and her election campaign reflect the problems of the USR. He tries to balance between progressive politics and supposed closeness to the people. A few years ago, she voted against gay marriage in a referendum initiated by the Orthodox Church, causing a public family conflict, as her daughter declares herself to be “a member of the LGBTQ community.” Elena Lasconi is now in favor of registered civil unions for queer people, but is still against gay marriage. In her appearances she prefers to wear a large Christian cross around her neck and clothes inspired by the style of Romanian folk costumes.

For Tsiolakou, a scenario with Simeon in the second round would be the most favorable. As in 2000, when ex-communist Ion Iliescu and ultra-nationalist Corneliu Vadim Tudor faced off in the second round, many Romanians would automatically support the “lesser evil”, i.e. Ciolacu. If, on the other hand, Lasconi manages to get into the second round, then, as so often in the last three decades, two Romanias will be pitted against each other – the country and the city, tradition and modernity, a stagnant apparatus and the reforming ones. forces.

Predictions for the parliamentary elections are equally ambiguous: According to the latest polls, the PSD will receive 25 to 35%, the nationalist AUR 15 to 21% and the National Liberals also 15 to 21%. One thing is certain: Romania’s populists and nationalists can expect a record result this time.

Edited by: Kostas Argyros