By Athena Papakosta

France is in danger of sinking into a chaotic political crisis. The head of the far-right National Rally, Marine Le Penis threatening to bring down the minority government of the eurozone’s second-strongest economy by the end of the year – unless changes are made to the country’s debated budget bill.

Ms. Le Pen made the relevant statements after meeting with French Prime Minister Michel Barnier, stressing that the articles, which provide for large spending cuts, tax increases and postponement of pension increases, must be changed.

Le Pen’s place in the equation of the political survival of the minority government in France is importantsince since its formation, last summer, it relies on the votes of the far-right party it leads. Michel Barnier’s government has already survived a motion of censure submitted by the coalition of the Left, and this because far-right MPs abstained from the vote.

The budget bill must be “passed” by the French National Assembly by December 21 and the far-right party “National Gathering” set as the final date for making its decisions on filing, or not, a motion of censure on December 18, when its members will also meet on the matter. Time is therefore pressing and Michel Barnier’s room for maneuver is limited.

The budget bill is strongly opposed by the French opposition, with the French prime minister reportedly considering making use of Article 49, paragraph 3 of the French Constitution and taking advantage of the special constitutional procedure it dictates, in order to bypass the vote in the French National Assembly, just as he did Macron with the pension reform.

However, as political analysts point out, such a decision could lead the coalition of the Left and the French far-right party to join forces and bring down the French minority government by submitting a joint motion of impeachment.

President Macron seems trapped.

France is facing suffocating pressures due to its fiscal situation.

Economists have been clear. If Paris does not give in to increasing tax revenues and reducing government spending, just as Barnier’s budget plan foresees, the fate of the second-strongest economy in the euro zone will resemble that path followed by Greece during the financial crisis.

Consequently, markets are worried. The Commission has already raised a yellow card for the country’s high budget deficit, which is galloping at full speed for 6% at the end of 2024, a rate twice the European target set by the Stability Pact.

At the same time, the announcement of early elections in order to strengthen his position after his defeat in the European elections finally explodes. Barnier’s minority government is creaking and new political storms are foreshadowed for Elysee and Matignon. According to the Constitution, it is impossible to announce elections and as far-right MPs report, his options are counted. Among them, either to appeal to a referendum, or to resign from the presidency of the country, three years before the end of his term.