By Penelope Galliou

The rapid parliamentary reshuffles, after the dissolution phenomena in his party SYRIZAbut also the political geography of the Parliament, as it is currently formed with the nine parties sharing its seats, constantly intensify the debates around the new conditions that are being formed, but which are – according to many analysts – a harbinger and projection in the political future of the country.

An image that shows that the independence of a party to form a government is getting further and further away, as long as the current political and “legislative conditions” governing the electoral process are maintained. And in the opinion polls this climate, of the end of autonomous governments, is clearly reflected, with the vast majority of respondents, in the GPO’s measurement of “Parapolitical”, 55.9% considering that after the next elections, whenever these are done, cooperative governments will emerge. Among them, 42.4% of the voters of the ruling party, while only 33.5% believe that independent governments will emerge.

The “antidote” to the climate that is being created, and the political instability that a fragmentation of the powers of the Parliament may entail, is the change of the electoral law, which may not have been officially put forward as a proposal or as a working scenario in Maximos Palacebut it is certainly discussed more and more often in the political conversations that weigh the political climate and the prospects that are prescribed. Despite the fact that both the prime minister himself and top competent government officials have denied any relevant scenario of changing the electoral law, relevant proposals always exist, with the central argument of ensuring political stability.

The supporters of this scenario propose, among other things, the changes to electoral law to concern the rise of the percentage-limit for entering the Parliament, from 3% to 5% and to give an extra bonus of seats according to the difference that will separate the first and the second party. The Minister of Health Adonis Georgiadis has come out publicly in favor of the changes, stating that the country cannot be governed by a multi-party government and therefore the electoral law should be changed to allow for a strengthened majority.

The last word and whether or not to launch a relevant legislative initiative always belongs to the prime minister, who remains firmly against the possibility of changing the electoral law and as he had categorically refused from the stage of the TIF, so in his last post last Sunday he put again an end to the related scenarios of electioneering and changes to the existing electoral law. Interpreting the unwavering position of Kyriakos Mitsotakis, government officials emphasize that “the prime minister operates very institutionally in this area and obviously the stability of the country is very important but also respect for the institutions is equally important. So, there is no question of changing the electoral law, nor the boundaries”, they stress.

In the same categorical way, the government representative has denied these scenarios in recent times, assuring that there is no such issue and no discussion for amending the electoral law, while noting that those who refer to it are simply expressing their personal opinions.

However, if the government decides, in the next two and a half years until the end of its second government term, to change the electoral law or part of its provisions, if it does not manage to gather an increased majority for its vote, then the changes will take effect from the next elections.

With the current electoral law, the limit of autonomy is close to 38%, a percentage that makes difficult to form an independent government with the first national elections. However, if – in the end – the limit of autonomy changes and falls, this will apply to the following elections, thus possibly making it easier to form a government, but after second ballots, again.

However, the message sent by officials of the Maximos Palace is that if the government implements the program with which it won a second four-year term, the ND can once again achieve self-reliance rates for a third government term.

Besides, until the next national elections, in 2027, there will be approximately two and a half years during which it is estimated that the positive impact of the government’s work will have been perceived by the citizens and the good performance of the Greek economy will have an impact on the citizens’ pockets as well.