Colombia goes to the polls this Sunday (13) to choose the 280 members of its bicameral Congress and define, in primaries, which will be the names of three of the main coalitions for the presidential election, which takes place on May 29.
For now, there are 16 pre-candidates, but the performance of each one in this round and in the polls could change the scenario – as happened in the previous election, when the current president, Iván Duque, was victorious in the choice of the Democratic Center group and, to strengthen his ticket, he named conservative Marta Lucía Ramírez, who had previously intended to run on his own, as vice president.
The main surveys today indicate an advantage for the left in both legislative and presidential elections. For the congressional dispute, the EcoAnalytic Institute points out that the Historic Pact coalition leads with 38% of voting intentions. Then come the Liberal Party, with 14%, and the Democratic Center (both more to the right), with 12%. The center coalition has 6.5% of the preference.
In the presidential race, the clear leadership belongs to the leftist Gustavo Petro, who this Sunday is contesting the Historic Pact primary – he has little risk of defeat, since the other four pre-candidates in the group have performed very poorly in the polls so far.
The poll by the Invamer institute shows the current senator with 44.6% of voting intentions in the national election. If his name is on the ballot box, it will be the second time he has run for president: in 2018, he was defeated by Duque in the second round.
Petro was mayor of the country’s capital, Bogotá, and one of the main supporters of the state’s peace agreement with the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia), signed in 2016 by then-President Juan Manuel Santos. He himself was a guerrilla of the M-19, a force that was active in the armed struggle and that, through another treaty, entered conventional politics in 1990.
Another coalition that elects its candidate this Sunday is Centro Esperanza, which, despite being tangled up, is favored by Sergio Fajardo, former governor of Antioquia and former mayor of Medellín, known for the urban reforms that rescued the city. The center-left politician came third in the 2018 presidential race and, according to current polls, would have 15% of voting intentions.
Fajardo is vying for the nomination with former health minister and former dean of the Universidad de los Andes Alejandro Gaviria and former senator Juan Manuel Galán — son of historic leader Luis Carlos Galán Sarmiento, murdered at the behest of Pablo Escobar in the middle of the campaign. elections in the late 1980s.
The three have in common their support for the peace agreement with the FARC.
The third coalition with primaries this Sunday, Equipo por Colombia, is more linked to the right and should have as its candidate another former mayor of Medellín, Federico Gutiérrez – who, supported by a strong presence on social networks and a focus on younger voters, marks 10% of intentions in national polls.
On the ballot, in addition to votes for Congress, each voter can nominate their favorite in just one coalition. Analysts see it as crucial that the caucus winners garner support from the losers and build unity within the alliances so they have the strength to face the outspoken favorite Petro.
The ballot box on May 29 should also have other names who preferred to run independently, without disputing any preliminary contests. One of them is that of former congresswoman Ingrid Betancourt, kidnapped by the FARC during the 2002 campaign and held captive for six years. She was supposed to participate in the Centro Esperanza primaries, but a disagreement with Gaviria made her prefer to go it alone – polls give the former senator 6.2% of voting intentions.
In addition to her, there is the businessman Rodolfo Hernández, a kind of outsider, who has 9.5% of preferences, and the veteran Óscar Zuluaga, who currently has 8%. The presence of the former presidential candidate, defeated by Juan Manuel Santos in 2014, is remarkable for representing the weakened government of the Democratic Center.
Duque, the current president, has a high rejection rate, at around 70%, according to Invamer, and his political group suffers from the hollowing out of the figure of his godfather, the historical leader of the right Álvaro Uribe. His charismatic caudillo style is still an influence in the country, but problems with the justice system — he is the target of corruption and human rights abuse lawsuits — have weakened his image. According to data from the Datexco institute, Uribe is currently rejected by 66% of Colombians. Right-wing candidates, in general, are opposed to the peace agreement with the FARC and, although they have to continue its implementation for constitutional reasons, they propose to reduce the scope of some of its elements.
If a second round is needed in the presidential election, it will be held on June 19. In the most recent polls, Petro would beat all other candidates.
His campaign now focuses on trying to reduce the rejection he still has for having been a guerrilla. The leftist senator is the candidate who has been most exposed on trips and rallies across the country – and has already held meetings with religious and military, sectors that did not support him in 2018.
