The political fate of the French prime minister hangs in the balance Michel Barnier, as if he does not yield to the demands of the leader of the Far Right, Marine Le Penon the budget, his government could be overthrown even within 48 hours, as Politico reports in its analysis.

OR France it is the second largest economy in the eurozone and carries a “mountain” of debt, while the government is more fragile and more divided than ever.

Today is a particularly critical day. MPs will meet in the National Assembly to vote on next year’s social security budget.

Barnier, who has been prime minister since September after Emmanuel Macron called snap elections, is desperate to pass the budget to avoid a political and economic crisis.

The problem for Barnier is that his centre-right government does not have a majority in parliament, so he will need the tacit support of the far-right. If he tries to bypass the vote, the opposition could even bring down his government.

The aim of the budget is to control the French deficit, which is forecast to reach 6.1% of GDP this year.

Barnier initially planned spending cuts of 40 billion euros. euros and tax increases amounting to 20 billion euros, but has been forced to make some concessions.

For their part, Le Pen and the National Alarm have presented a list of demands and expect Barnier to satisfy them in return for their cooperation.

The National Alarm has set out a series of “red lines”, i.e. policies which it says will automatically lead to a vote of no confidence if included in the budget.

Le Pen told AFP on Sunday that the government had “ended the debate”, while stressing that “there is a possibility that we will suffer the consequences of this extremely narrow-minded and sectarian behaviour”.

Barnier’s two choices

Barnier has two options on the table to pass the budget but both require the cooperation of the National Guard.

The first is the traditional parliamentary route. Under this scenario, the bill will be put to a vote. And to win Barnier’s minority government – which is supported by a close coalition of centrist and conservative MPs – will need at least the tacit support of National Alarm MPs. He would probably succeed, even if Le Pen’s MPs abstained.

Le Pen, in turn, has tacitly left that door open, setting a deadline of today, Monday, for budget corrections to be made.

The second option, which Barnier has said he is “likely” to use, is to skip the vote altogether.

The French constitution allows the government to do so, but the move allows opposition parties to table a no-confidence motion – which, if tabled, would likely be put to a vote on Wednesday.

If this proposal passes, the budget will be rejected and the government will automatically collapse.

The New People’s Front, which holds about a third of the seats in the National Assembly, has already pledged to table a motion to topple the government. If the far right joins, it will all be over for the Barnier government.

The problems with the budget

As Politico notes, if Barnier chooses the second path, he can only hope that Le Pen will not want to plunge the country into economic chaos.

But the National Alert’s official position, for now, is that it won’t budge.

“We still have issues with the budget… Barnier has until Monday,” Le Pen clarified, speaking to Monde on Thursday.

Le Pen’s wish list

Her wish list has expanded in recent days. National Alarm is calling on the government to scrap the electricity tax hike, abandon the planned postponement of the annual inflation adjustment for pensions, retain employer contribution exemptions for low-wage workers, pledge not to write off delist certain drugs, “drastically reduce” access to government-funded health care for undocumented immigrants, and “negotiate with Brussels the reduction of France’s contribution to the budget of the European Union”.

Barnier has started to back down, reversing his plans for electricity taxes and agreeing to keep employer tax exemptions.

He also tried to “seduce” the far right in an interview with the conservative newspaper Le Figaro with additional promises, such as limiting the ability of undocumented people to access health care.

Barnier claims that none of this is aimed at convincing Le Pen, but instead was an attempt at consensus with all opposition parties.

Politics are also at play, with Le Pen wanting Barnier to lay victory at her feet. “I have a democratic issue with his insistence that this is not a concession to the National Alarm. They want our votes, but not our faces associated with them,” he stressed.

However, speaking to the newspaper Le Parisien, the responsible Budget Minister appears to have closed the door on any last-minute concessions.

“There’s no way we can guarantee the recovery of the economy if we go any further than we’ve already done,” he said. “Compromise is not blackmail, there can be no ultimatum,” he stressed.

In response, the president of the National Alarm, Jordan Bardela, in a post on X, accused the government of being “stubborn” and “risking overturning by ending the negotiations.”

As Politico points out, even if Barnier survives this week, the challenges don’t end there.

Later this month, if the social security bill passes, MPs will consider next year’s overall government budget, which will once again expose the prime minister to a vote of no confidence – and inevitably to another set of demands from National Alarm .