By Marc Champion*

If you’re curious about what a truly post-American world will look like, take a close look at what’s been happening in recent days.

The civil war in Syria flared up, with an Islamist terrorist group retaking the northern city of Aleppo. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, surprised even itself with the ease with which President Bashar al-Assad’s forces retreated in the face of its advance.

This has been possible because Assad’s allies have their armies depleted and committed elsewhere. OR Russia fighting in Ukraine while the Iran and Hezbollah have been hit hard by Israel. HTS, supported by Turkeyshe timed her attack at the right time.

None of these players asked for their permission USA to act. Even Israel ignored US opposition to its invasion of Lebanon and continued war in Gaza. The outgoing administration of President Joe Biden has made it clear that it has nothing to do with the opposition campaign in Syria.

Meanwhile, in the South Caucasus region, the Georgian government’s decision to end its bid to join the European Union has sparked major protests in the streets of the capital Tbilisi, leading to several incidents with police authorities.

This is because even though the vast majority of Georgians say they want to join the EU, the current government has managed to stay in power by abandoning the EU path. This may be partly due to electoral fraud, if the opposition’s claims prove true. Mostly, though, it’s because of the popular fear – encouraged by the government itself and the barrage of Russian propaganda – that if this small country tries to do what its people want, it will end up like Ukraine. Russian tanks and troops are already occupying parts of Georgia just an hour’s drive from the capital, so this is a real threat.

Further west in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin is stepping up his efforts to seize as much territory as possible and damage Kiev’s ability to resist as much as possible, ahead of the talks, which are expected to take place after the president-elect of the USA Donald Trump on January 20. All because what Trump brings to the table is his stated desire to end US defense aid to Ukraine.

A little further west, in Romania, a far-right, anti-Western nationalist party doubled its share and came second in the parliamentary elections, with around 18%.

The most important factors to which all this is due are domestic. This is true even in Syria, where the failure of Assad and his foreign allies to rebuild the economy has made a rebel resurgence a matter of “when” this assault on Aleppo would happen, not “if.”

However, there is a common issue that runs from Trump’s anti-establishment MAGA movement in the US to Syria, and that is rising nationalism as the old, US-dominated “liberal” order disintegrates.

I won’t pretend to know how all these situations will turn out. I can’t even be sure whether the freedom of sovereign states to pursue their interests without US interference will turn out to be a better or worse option than before. Remember the Cold War – when the world was divided into hostile camps and prone to proxy wars. “Pax Americana” never delivered either world peace or justice.

What is certain, however, is that there will be unrest, uncertainty and injustices in the future. Where until recently we had – for the most part – only one great power that abused power to impose itself, now we will have many such powers.

Interests

Russia, for example, has a national interest in dominating its neighbors, be it the Baltic states, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Ukraine or the Balkans, as well as maintaining its unique naval base in the Mediterranean, which is located on the coast of Syria. Turkey has an interest in removing Kurdish fighters from its side of the border with Syria and in having Sunni allies in the Damascus leadership. Iran, meanwhile, has an interest in keeping Assad in power in Syria, and thus a friendly corridor through which it can supply Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israel, of course, has a strong incentive to prevent this, although, paradoxically, it also does not want a radical Sunni regime in Damascus.

For now, opposition to the US has united many of the new nationalists because they are unhappy with their borders and the current balance of power (or in Trump’s case, the balance of trade). But with the US out, their interests will collide.

Not everyone will necessarily go to war. Iran, Russia and Turkey are negotiating to avoid direct conflict with each other in Syria while simultaneously pursuing their nationalist goals. However, almost any major event will have ramifications on other fronts, as the action of the Turkish-backed HTS in Syria last weekend showed. Until some new world order emerges, the threat of enlargement or regional or even global war will always be present.

*Marc Champion is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion and covers Europe, Russia and the Middle East.