Her “strong man” is once again fighting for his political survival Syria Bashar al-Assad. Its troops are even supporting Shiite fighters from neighboring Iraq. They all have a common enemy: the jihadist rebels and their allies, who appear to have been strengthened and rearmed in recent years. Since last Wednesday, they have launched a large-scale offensive with unexpected success, capturing Aleppo and closing in on the city of Hama.

The new jihadist alliance operates under the name “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” (HTS) and is essentially an evolution of the Syrian arm of al-Qaeda. As André Bank, an analyst at the Hamburg-based German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA), points out to Deutsche Welle, “Al-Nusra Front, which emerged in 2012 as the Syrian arm of Al-Qaeda, has undergone changes, particularly after the change of leadership in the 2016/17 season, and today it is distancing itself from the historical roots of the organization. The goal of the new leader Abu Mohammed Al Gilani is not the Caliphate, but a ‘local solution’ for Syria, that is, a Salafist-jihadi regime centered on the Idlib region.”

Assad’s allies less powerful

The Syrian president can always count on Russia’s assistance. “We certainly support Bashar al-Assad,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Just last weekend, Iran’s foreign minister also visited Damascus. The fact is, of course, that Assad’s traditional allies have weakened recently, as Russia focuses on the war against Ukraine, and Iran has been absorbed by the confrontation with Israel.

Nevertheless, notes the German analyst Andre Bank, “it is still too early to draw the conclusion that the Assad regime is collapsing. Assad’s allies may appear weakened, but they learn to wield power and international influence, which is certainly not the case with the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham alliance. This is clear.”

For his part, Manal Baris, a Syrian journalist and researcher based in London, believes that the advance of the jihadists is not only aimed at the collapse of the regime in Damascus, but also at weakening other factors that traditionally claim a leading role in the region. These include Iran, the pro-Iranian organization Hezbollah, as well as Shiite paramilitary groups based in Afghanistan, Pakistan or Iraq.

Today Syria is de facto divided into four different zones of influence. Most of it – about 60% of the country’s total territory – is still controlled by Bashar al-Assad. The “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” alliance has prevailed in a small strip of land in northwestern Syria. Further north the Turkeyfor eight years, has been controlling lands bordering its own territory. North-eastern Syria is dominated by the Kurds.

Turkey’s interests

The role of Ankara, which supports the action of the jihadist rebels in Syria, is proving to be pivotal. And this for two reasons, as Andre Bank mentions. “From the beginning (of the hostilities in Syria) Turkey sought to limit the influence of the Kurds, which is why it has been carrying out military operations in the region since 2016,” the German analyst emphasizes. “He is even expected to expand operations into Kurdish areas in northeastern Syria, as upon his return Donald Trump American troops who participated in operations against jihadists, together with Kurdish fighters, will leave the White House.”

“From here on,” Andre Bank notes, “Turkey’s second goal is to create demilitarized zones, from Afrin in northwestern Syria to the Turkish border, so that, in due time, the 3.5 million of Syrian refugees currently living in Turkey”.

Edited by: Yiannis Papadimitriou