In just a few days, an armed Islamist rebel group captured two of its largest cities SyriaAleppo and Hama. Now, the rebels have set their sights on the city of Homs, a strategic point between rebel-held areas in the north and the capital Damascus.

If the rebels manage to capture it, it could be a decisive turning point in the battle against the Syrian president’s regime Bashar al-Assad.

“If Homs falls, Damascus will be cut off from the coast, effectively cutting what would be left of the regime’s power in two”said Charles Lister, senior fellow and director of the Syria program at the Middle East Institute.

With a population of over 1.4 million. inhabitants, Homs is the third largest city in Syria. Located on Syria’s M5 highway, it is strategically located just 25 miles south of Hama, which rebels captured on Thursday. It is about 90 miles north of Damascus, the final target of the rebel offensive, which is still under the control of the Assad regime.

Homs is also a central hub between the capital and the Syrian coastline. This coastal region is a stronghold of Syria’s Alawite community, traditionally the power base of the Assad political dynasty. (The Assad family is Alawite).

The coast is also home to a Russian naval base at Tartus, with a Russian air base at Hmeimim, further north. Russia and its military have supported the Assad regime.

The capture of Homs would be a major success in the fast offensive of the armed Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, helping to further accelerate its rapid advance towards Damascus and protect its gains in the north.

Before the HTS attack, the battle lines in Syria’s 13-year civil war had been largely unchanged for years. This stalemate was “broken” last week when HTS quickly captured the city of Aleppo and then moved on to capture Hama.

The rapid advance is due to rural areas near Hama “abandoning the regime” without a fight, the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based international think tank, said in a Thursday briefing on the war. “This trend may help forces close to HTS approach Homs within the next day without being slowed by fighting in the countryside.”he said.

HTS reported on Friday that it captured two towns just six miles north of Homs, in a sign of the rebels’ rapid advance towards the city.

The Syrian army has denied that units near Homs are withdrawing. “Our forces are fully prepared and ready to carry out their duties and face any terrorist attack”the military said in a statement on Friday.

Lister said that “in theory” the Assad regime has a strong military presence and security in Homs. “But the surrounding countryside is much more accessible to the opposition”particularly the towns along the M5 motorway, he noted.

“This gives the opposition a natural advantage, and with the current trend, Homs will almost certainly fall before long.”said Lister.