The Europeans, extremely embarrassed by the new situation in Damascus, are increasing the suspicion that they may repeat mistakes made in other countries of the region or simply do nothing. By watching its television networks Europe last Sunday, among them the German ones, one could only wonder about the feeling of immense euphoria they conveyed, monotonously repeating for hours the same images of celebrations from “liberated” Damascus. Was it just a result of surprise at a twist they didn’t expect or more ignorance of the new data? The relatively late and rather general, but almost identical reaction of the foreign ministries of Germany and France further confirmed their need to buy time, before assessing the situation.

Immediate repatriation programs

What is certain, however, is that this image of unrestrained enthusiasm and relief from the fall of Assad, as a first reaction, does not necessarily echo the moods of the approximately 24 million Syrians, many of whom live outside the country as refugees anyway, others in better and others in miserable conditions. In the hours that followed, most European countries, apart from being satisfied with the “blow to Putin’s prestige”, showed that they were turning their eyes to the prospect of being “released” from the refugee, ready to characterize the Syria now as a country where its inhabitants can feel safe and do not need asylum protection. Some, such as Austria, have gone so far as to talk about developing an “express” program aimed at deporting and repatriating Syrian citizens.

Jihadism with a human… face

The Commission was of course more careful in its wording, pointing out that it is still too early for safe conclusions. Indeed, it is a question of how safe all Syrians, especially Christians, who made up about 10% of the population before the war, can feel safe from a system of “jihadism with a human face” (or better mask). How safe can a woman feel in Taliban Afghanistan.

But even if one believes in the transformation of Abu Mohammed al-Jolani into a national hero, it is certain that he will not be so eager to share the power that his … laurels of victory give him with the rival armed groups in the country. The possibility of new civil conflicts is far from unlikely. So the rush of the Europeans to start talking about deportations is rather in line with the tradition they have had for decades, that is, to baptize their wishes as reality. Their rather communicative stance towards their own domestic audience has and may ultimately backfire if the country descends into chaos and the “return wave” turns out to be an unfortunate illusion.

Other observers

But it is not only the question of repatriation. European “mutes” are watching Israel’s invasion of Syria with Biden’s blessings, which may lead to other dramas or Turkey’s efforts to secure approval or even tolerance for cleansing operations in Kurdish areas. They don’t dare to say the least. This has nothing to do with their reluctance to fear a power vacuum in Syria, but with the existing “leadership vacuum” in Europe itself.

This is exactly what Mario Draghi spoke about on Monday night in Milan, whom, by the way, the European technocrats themselves have tasked with providing them with ideas for their future. One can have whatever opinion one wants about the former “Super Mario”. But his observation that Franco-German leadership has weakened and he sees “no other leadership capable of leading Europe into a common future” realistically rings true.

Mario will wait unfairly

Europe is the one who pays daily the consequences of the war in Syria and the one who neighbors a combustible region, which is in danger of being completely destabilized.

But he acts like he’s… somewhere else. The prospect of the partition of Syria, the all-but-hidden appetite of some to share the robes of the battered country, the unspoken fate of the minorities, the strengthening of the “morale” of the Islamist warlords cannot be addressed with a simple shrug of the shoulders. But this is currently the “official” position of Berlin and Paris.

As for the expectation expressed by the former European central banker saying “let’s be patient and wait for the results of the German elections” it should probably be seen as a sarcastic warning to the contrary. The next government in Berlin will not be formed before – mid to late April at the earliest. On the one hand, it is ridiculous to say that one can wait until then, having so fresh the experience of the fall of Damascus in about ten days. After all, as the old adage says: “he who waits too long should not wait too long”.

A parquet floor uncomfortable for the next chancellor

On the other hand, the likely next chancellor, the Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz, has so far not dazzled with foreign policy mastery. His off-color statements last Monday, after a “lightning visit” to Kiev, confirmed that the foreign policy floor is not his favorite place. His interest is clearly inward, not outward. Or else what he says about “outside” is related to his tactics to win the elections “inside”.

It is rather heartbreaking, but one must keep it in mind as a given. As long as Macron will try to untangle himself from the internal political drama he caused and the German Christian Democrats will be looking for their allies and their footsteps, in the Middle East the developments will run in unknown directions and the “smaller” ones of the EU will look for “private » solutions to face their problems, with greater fear of a new wave of refugees from some country that internationalists will christen again “failed”.