With nearly 1.45 billion people today, one would think that the country would not need to have more children. Nevertheless, the leaders of two southern Indian states, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, recently argued that the country should have more children.

OR Andhra Pradesh she thinks to motivate, invoking low fertility rates and an aging population. The state also withdrew her “two-child policy” on the occasion of the local elections and reports say that the neighboring Telangana may soon do the same. The one next door Tamil Nadu also has similar thoughts.

India’s fertility rate has fallen significantly – from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to 2 today.

Fertility rates have fallen below par replenishment of two births per woman in 17 of the 29 states and territories. (Replenishment level is that at which new births are sufficient to maintain a stable population.)

The five southern Indian states are leading India’s demographic transition, achieving fertility at replacement levels far in excess of other states. OR Kerala reached the milestone in 1988, the Tamil Nadu in 1993 and the rest in the mid-2000s.

Today, the five southern states have combined fertility rates below 1.6, with Karnataka in 1.6 and the Tamil Nadu at 1.4. In other words, fertility rates in these states match or are lower than many European countries.

Parliamentary seats and federal revenue

But these states fear that India’s changing demographics with varying population shares between states, will significantly affect electoral representation and the allocation of parliamentary seats and federal revenues.

“They fear being penalized for their effective population control policies, despite the fact that they have better economic performance and contribute significantly to federal revenue”he told the BBC Srinivas Goliprofessor of demography at the International Institute of Population Sciences.

The southern states also face another major concern as India prepares for the delimitation of electoral seats in 2026 – the first since 1976.

This would redefine electoral boundaries to reflect population shifts, possibly reducing parliamentary seats for the economically prosperous southern states. As federal revenue is distributed based on states’ populations, many fear it could deepen their economic struggles and limit policymaking freedom.

Demographers KS James and Shubhra Kriti predict that populous northern states like the Uttar Pradesh and the Bihar will gain more seats from delimitation, while southern states like the Tamil Naduh Kerala and the Andhra Pradesh they could face losses, further altering political representation.

Many, including the prime minister Narendra Modihave hinted that changes in fiscal shares and the distribution of parliamentary seats will not be made in a hurry.

“India gets old before it gets rich”

“As a demographer, I don’t think states should worry too much about these issues. They can be resolved through constructive negotiations between federal and state governments.”says Mr. Golly. “My concern lies elsewhere.”

“The main challenge, according to demographers, is the rapid aging of India due to declining fertility rates. While countries like France and Sweden took 120 and 80 years respectively to double their aging population from 7% to 14%, India is expected to reach this milestone in 28 years”says Mr. Golly.

“This accelerated aging is linked to India’s unique success in reducing fertility. In most countries, improved living standards, education and urbanization naturally reduce fertility as child survival is improved.

But in India, fertility rates declined rapidly despite modest socioeconomic progress, thanks to aggressive family welfare programs that promoted small families through goals, incentives and disincentives’.

“The consequence? Take it Andhra Pradeshfor example. Its fertility rate is 1.5, on par with Sweden, but its per capita income is 28 times lower.”says Mr. Golly. “With mounting debt and limited resources, can states like these support higher pensions or social security for a rapidly aging population”?

“Think about this. Over 40% of senior Indians (age 60+) belong to the poorest wealth quintile – the bottom 20% of a population in terms of wealth distribution, according to the latest United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) India Aging Report.

In other words, Mr. Golly says, “india grows old before it gets rich”.

Fewer children also means an increasing ratio of elderly dependency, leaving fewer caregivers for an expanding elderly demographic. Demographers warn that India’s health care, community centers and nursing homes are unprepared for it.

Investments in social infrastructure

Urbanisation, immigration and changes in labor markets are further eroding traditional family support – India’s strong point – leaving most of the elderly behind.

While migration from more populous to less populous states can reduce it the working age gapalso stoking anti-immigration concerns. “Strong investments in prevention, palliative care and social infrastructure for aging care are urgently needed”says Mr. Golly.

As if the concerns of the southern states were not enough, earlier this month the head of the Hindu nationalist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (National Organization of Volunteers)the ideological backbone of the BJP of Mr. Modi – urged couples to have at least three children to secure India’s future. “According to the science of population, when growth falls below 2.1, a society loses itself. No one destroys it”he is reported to have said Mohan Bhagwat in a recent meeting.

Although the concerns of Mr. Bhagwat may have some basis, they’re not entirely accurate, demographers say. THE Tim Dysona demographer at the London School of Economics, told the BBC that after a decade or two, the continuation of “very low fertility levels will lead to rapid population decline.”

A fertility rate of 1.8 births per woman leads to a slow, manageable population decline. But a rate of 1.6 or lower could cause “rapid, unmanageable population decline”.

Extension of retirement ages

“Fewer people will enter reproductive – and prime working age – and that will be socially, politically and economically disastrous. This is a demographic process and it is extremely difficult to reverse,” says Mr. Dyson. This is already happening in some countries.

In May, the president of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol declared the low birth rate in the country as “national emergency” and announced plans for a special government ministry. Greece’s fertility rate has plummeted to 1.3, half of what it was in 1950, sparking warnings from Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis of an “existential” population threat.

But demographers say it’s futile to urge people to have more children. “Given societal changes, including a significant reduction in gender disparities as women’s lives become increasingly similar to men’s, this trend is unlikely to reverse.”says Mr. Dyson.

For Indian states like Tamil Nadu and the Keralastruggling with a dwindling workforce, the key question is: who will step in to fill the void? Unable to reverse declining fertility, developed countries are focusing on healthy and active aging—extending working lives by five to seven years and boosting productivity in older populations.

Demographers say India will need to substantially extend retirement ages and policies must prioritize increased health checks and stronger social security to ensure an active and productive older population – a potential “silver dividend” .

India also needs to make better use of the its demographic dividend – economic growth that occurs when a country has a large working-age population. Mr. Golly believes there is a window of opportunity until 2047 to stimulate the economy, create jobs for the working-age population and allocate resources for ageing.