The latest attempt to solve France’s political and financial crisis could be called “back to the future”.

The new prime minister Francois Bayrouwas Minister of Education when Emmanuel Macron he was still a student. The 73-year-old centrist, whom the president reluctantly appointed on Friday after days of behind-closed-doors wrangling after the fall of his government Michel Barnierwas a vital ally and adviser to the young Macron when he dynamited France’s political system in 2017 to win the presidency at the age of 39.

Macron believed he had consigned the old political order and the left-right divide to history – calling it “le monde d’avant” (the world before). Now, Bayrou effectively forced a reluctant Macron to appoint him, according to insider testimony, by threatening otherwise to withdraw his MoDem party from the president’s Ensemble (Mazi) alliance.

Macron’s chances of serving out term until 2027 and fending off hard-right leader Marine Le Pen from succeeding him at the Élysée Palace depend on the success of this game.

THE Bayrou he was recalled in a second attempt to break a parliamentary deadlock that defeated Barnier and left France without a budget and in the credit line of fire due to mounting debt and a chronic deficit. Moody’s downgraded France’s credit rating on the day Bairou took over the Hotel Matignon offices from the former Brexit negotiator.

With economic pressure and public discontent mounting, can Bairoux do better than Barnier?

The answer depends on his ability to convince both the centre-left Socialist party (PS) and the conservative Republicans (LR) to refrain from toppling his government, giving him at least a breather to show some results.

Many commentators, especially on the left, were quick to dismiss Bayrou’s candidacy as “the same old” attempt by Macron to save his liberal legacy by nominating someone who could be trusted not to scrap his pension reform to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64, or to reverse his tax cuts for wealth creators.

But the political equation has changed since early December, when an unnatural alliance of Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) and the left-wing New Popular Front (NPF), led by the radical left Jean-Luc Mélenchonslammed Barnier’s government over its plan to postpone inflation coverage for pensioners.

The leader of the socialists, Olivier Faurerealized that many socialist supporters did not approve of the PS’s “extreme” vote on the censure motion and believe that the party should break with the LFI and behave more constructively as a responsible “governmental left”. Facing internal party challenges, he agreed to talks with Macron and said the PS was ready to compromise on the basis of “mutual concessions”. The Greens also said they were open to a non-aggression pact if the new prime minister respected certain conditions, mainly to avoid using a constitutional tool to impose laws on parliament without a vote.

THE Bayroua farmer’s son who is more socially conscious than either Macron or Barnier, could build an old-hands government from the center-left to the center-right, even if it means shedding some of Barnier’s spending cuts. In his first statement on taking office, the new prime minister, who has remained rooted in the rural south-west, denounced what he called “glass ceiling” who cut off France’s elites from the common people and promised to restore a meritocracy in which hard work was rewarded.

Political sources say he is likely to retain the conservative interior minister, Bruno Retailleauwho has built a “tough on crime and tough on illegal immigration” profile in his three months in office. But speculation is rife that Bairu will try to bring political officials from previous governments to replace some of the second-rate politicians in Barnier’s government.

To please the Socialists and the Greens – but also Le Pen’s RN – a bill to introduce the proportional representation in parliamentary elections before the election of the next National Assembly. This would bring France in line with most other continental democracies, where coalition government is the norm. It will free the PS and Greens from having to rely on LFI votes to win constituency run-offs under the current two-round system. But it would also mean a weaker, more unstable system than the highly vertical system that has been in place since the Charles de Gaulle founded the Fifth Republic in 1958.

Basically, the French are fighting with the same equation of political instability and fiscal squeeze like many other aging European societies with little economic growth, where politicians cannot agree on spending cuts that hurt their constituents. Besides, France already had the highest taxation and public spending as a percentage of national income of any EU country before Macron precipitated the political crisis by dissolving parliament in June.

If Bairoux cannot build a minimal consensus of parties from the center-right to the center-left on socially balanced solutions to limit the budget deficit and initiate a popular reform or two, the latest episode in France’s political drama will fuel Le Pen’s chances of gaining power.