“The Iran it has been in a difficult situation for a long time and knows that there is no other way but to change,” sums up the current situation, expert on the subject Aras Azizi in an interview with DW.

The historian and lecturer at Clemson University in the US emphasizes that the leadership of the Islamic Republic must change its policy and make an agreement with the West in order to overcome international isolation and economic collapse. The leadership is “concerned about the return of the policy of maximum economic pressure that the Trump administration could implement.”

His Iran policy could again set a new, somber tone for the rulers in Tehran in an already eventful Persian year, which ends not in December but in early spring.

Many Iranians are wondering: Is a harsh winter now approaching for the leadership of the Islamic Republic?

Nine dramatic months

The last nine months have been marked by dramatic events for Iran. In the spring, President Raisi, a hardliner and potential successor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, killed in a helicopter crash. His unexpected death led to early presidential elections, which the moderate politician surprisingly won Massoud Pezeskian.

In the summer, the targeted assassination of Ismail Haniyahead of Hamas’s foreign policy, shocked the Islamic Republic. Hamas is a terrorist organization and has been designated as such by the European Union, the US, Germany and other countries.

The attack on the Presidential Palace in Tehran thus removed from the ranks of its supporters a key member of the “axis of resistance” against Israel and the West. In the autumn, the – also very costly – “axis of resistance” collapsed with the assassination of Hezbollah’s leader, Nasrallah and in December with his fall Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

“In my opinion, it is very likely that the leadership of the Islamic Republic will try to reduce tensions with the West,” explains Azizi. He is quoted in a guest article by Iran’s former foreign minister and nuclear negotiator, Mohammad Javad Zarif, in Foreign Affairs magazine.

The article was published before Assad’s fall on December 2 under the title “How Iran sees the path to peace.” In it, Zarif, who was a member of the cabinet as vice president for a few days in August this year, emphasizes the country’s willingness to negotiate with Western countries, including the US.

“As for Israel, Zarif maintains that Iran will accept any deal reached by the Palestinians themselves. This is an important point,” adds Azizi.

When asked if the leadership of the Islamic Republic could reconsider its hostility towards Israel, Azizi explains: “The question is how they will enforce this inside the country. This contradicts the stance of the religious leader Khamenei and his lifelong anti-Israel position.” Now it is important to see “how President Trump and the Israeli Prime Minister will react to this moment of weakness for the Islamic Republic,” Azizi continues.

The nuclear bomb for Iran’s security?

This moment of weakness and the setbacks suffered by Iran and its allies in recent months have sparked a new debate in the country about military deterrence. Backbench politicians are increasingly calling for the development of nuclear weapons. In early December, Ahmad Naderi, a lawmaker from Tehran, said the time had come to test nuclear weapons.

Fearing an escalation, Germany, France and the United Kingdom held talks with Iran in late November to curb its nuclear program. “It was talks about talks,” political consultant Cornelius Andebar comments on these diplomatic steps.

He emphasizes: “There is a need to have these talks before Trump takes office. Once Trump takes office, he could feel pressured one way or another. There are voices that advise him to persevere.” A plan, or at least the outlines of a plan, would be an advantage to the Europeans.’

“Care for peace in society”

Dealing with the West is not the only challenge facing Iran’s current government. There is also no solution to internal problems, especially the ongoing controversy over the headscarf law.

Hardliners are increasingly focusing on measures to increase pressure on women. They have passed a new headscarf law in Parliament, which has sparked outrage and anger across the country. Women who ignore the obligation to wear the headscarf are threatened with heavy fines, denial of public services, bans from leaving the country and, in extreme cases, prison sentences.

President Pezheskian vetoed the law. He and his advisers seem to recognize that challenging society and possible mass protests at this moment of weakness could be extremely dangerous for the Islamic Republic.

Pezeskian is not prepared to understand what women really want, says human rights activist and former journalist Faezeh Abdipour in an interview with DW. Women have been required to wear headscarves since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. The new law only aims to drastically toughen the penalties.

Abdipour, who has been arrested several times for her commitment to religious minorities and human rights, emphasizes: “Women in the Islamic Republic have learned to fight daily and consistently for their freedom and their lives. They want to decide for themselves what to wear. But unfortunately, the political system is unlikely to budge on this issue.”

The situation for women who refuse to wear the hijab is becoming more and more difficult. “There are patrols by the morality police in the subways and intersections and fines for not wearing the hijab,” reports Abdipour. Her own car was impounded a few months ago for “violating” the headscarf requirement. “The fine I had to pay was extremely high,” he adds.

However, many women no longer adhere to the strict Islamic dress code. This trend followed the mass protests in the fall of 2022, which moved the world with the slogan “Woman, life, freedom”.

Edited by: Kostas Argyros