Of Marc Champion*

US President Donald Trump proves that he is keeping his word. It moves quickly to stop Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the signs of recent days show that it will move hard … to Kiev, not to Moscow.

It is still too early to know exactly what Trump has in mind, but as I said about his proposal to take over the US, Gaza is worth taking his statements seriously, even if they do not tell the whole story. And What Trump and his government for Ukraine have said and did in the last 72 hours show that they aim to restore relations with Moscow at the expense of Ukraine and Europe.

America has a lot of papers to play to push Moscow towards a real peace deal that will limit the exchange for its illegal invasion and ensure a constant ceasefire. But recent public actions show that Trump does not intend to use them. This is reasonable if all you want is a quick agreement on any terms, because it is much easier to push Ukraine to make concessions than Russia.

Trump made telephone communications to start the peace talks, first with the president of Russia Vladimir Putinthen with the Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenskibut did not contact Europe’s leaders. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegshez, meanwhile, was giving negotiating papers that could be used in any attempt to contain Putin.

Ukraine, former Fox News presenter said in Tunato Defense Ministers in Brussels, will not join NATO, will not regain the borders it had before Russia began its invasion in 2014, it will have no US troops in any peacekeeping force And he will not continue to receive American aid to the levels he received so far.

It’s not that either of them is wrong or shocking. Everyone in this group and Kiev understand that these were concessions that may be made as part of any possible peace agreement, which were exchanged by similar concessions in Moscow. But none of them would want to make the concessions first and then negotiate. Trump may or may not be, as Hegsheth describes, “the best negotiator on the planet”. But the worry is that it is definitely good enough not to make rookie errors with such statements if the goal was to push Moscow on behalf of Ukraine.

As if he wanted to underline his lack of commitment to a dominant Ukraine, Trump said in an interview with Fox News that Ukraine may do or not make an agreement and that “it can be Russian one day, or may not be done Russian one day. ” The important point for him, he said, is to get back the money the US has spent on war, securing € 500 billion mineral resources.

He also seemed to argue that Kiev should not have opposed Putin’s invasion from the beginning, saying that he “was not a good war to get involved”.

Europe, meanwhile, was simply ignored. This clearly caused a shock, a few days before Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kogg, said he would come to advise them on the negotiating strategy. European leaders insisted after Hegsez’s speech that no constant agreement could be made without them. Well, that’s exactly what seems to be happening, and Ukraine’s European supporters can’t do much about it.

What they heard by Hegschez was a strict preaching and – on the day that the London -based International Institute of Security Studies calculated that Russia spends more than all over Europe together on defense In terms of equity purchasing power – a clear message that, from now on, they will be alone in Ukraine. Again, this makes no sense if Trump’s goal is to push Putin, but it makes sense if the idea is to push Europe into an agreement on Ukraine that would otherwise not accept.

More specifically, Hegschez said that all European states should spend 5% of their GDP on defense and that the US priority is now China. Again, there is no surprise here. Europeans know that they still do not spend enough on defense. They also know that the US security umbrella is dragged east. But it is equally true that the goal of 5% of GDP is unrealistic, even for the US, the only NATO member who has reduced his share of his economy that spends defense over the last decade. This figure today is 3.38%.

Perhaps Trump surprises everyone and reaches a good agreement that will ensure a permanent ceasefire and ensures Ukraine’s future as a sovereign state. But for now, let’s calculate who got what publicly.

Putin: Its diplomatic isolation from the West was “broken” from the only country that, in his view, really counts the US. Trump said he hoped to meet personally with the Russian leader, first in Saudi Arabia and then both in Moscow and Washington.

Moscow also now has public confirmation by the Trump government that it will not provide Ukraine security guarantees with its accession to NATO, or with the presence of US troops on its territory, or by strengthening US military aid, or by covering any European peacekeeping power with the guarantee of Article 5 that the US will “run” for their defense in the event of an attack. As Zelenski said in response, there can be no real security guarantee for Ukraine without US participation.

The Kremlin also now has with Trump a US president who seems to accept his rhetoric: that Ukraine may not have a future as an independent state and that Putin’s decision to invade a neighboring country was not really a mistake by Putin. The Kremlin also seems closer than ever since 1945 to achieve its long -term goal to remove the US from Europe. Then, as it is now, the goal was to keep Russia the dominant military force, capable of expanding its sphere of influence.

USA: The US got the return of prisoners that Moscow had actually got as hostage to false accusations (it remains unclear what was offered in return) and a deal in principle to secure Ukraine $ 500 billion fossil. This would be a compensation for about $ 100 billion that – according to estimates by Germany’s Kiel Institute – the US has provided assistance to Ukraine. The amount of $ 300 billion reported by Trump and Hegscheth is a nonsense. Therefore, this is a possible (albeit unlikely to make) of the investment by 400%, from a damaged nation to a time of need for it.

Ukraine: So far, Ukraine has received nothing more than the funding of its financial future in the US.

Europe: Nothing except the clearest indication to date that Trump does not consider European nations as allies. For the Baltic states and Poland in particular, the impact of Trump’s language will be very worrying.

Asked by reporters about all this, Hegschez said that “there is no betrayal” but a recognition of reality. This is only the case on the grounds that US decisions will change reality. If this is not a betrayal, this should now be proved by the Trump government.

*Marc Champion is a columnist of the Bloomberg Opinion column and covers topics for Europe, Russia and the Middle East