Since last December, when Libya’s first parliamentary elections were scheduled but postponed to June, the country has had a second prime minister since February 10. This is Fati Basaga, a former interior minister, who was elected by the parliament in Tobruk, in eastern Libya. His deputies justified the move by saying that the term of Abdul Hamid Dbeiba, who was to prepare for the elections and launch procedures for a new constitution, ended with the postponement of the December elections. Of course, Dbeiba has no intention of resigning and continues to perform his duties normally.
Turkish influence is growing
Yet. At a time when Russia is continuing an aggressive war against Ukraine, a political compromise in Libya would be particularly important. Thomas Folk, of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, explains why. “Libya,” he says, “is greatly affected by this war. Not only because it also depends on imports of Russian wheat with rising prices and even worse consequences for the Libyan population. But why is there also a tendency to redirect Russian foreign and defense policy towards this Russo-Ukrainian war, with the result that Turkey is becoming a stronger player in Libya. Ankara seems to be more supportive of the Dbeiba camp. “In short, Turkey is in the process of further strengthening its influence in Libya.”
Russia has had a huge military presence in Libya for years and a significant influence on political developments in the country without being the only one. However, in late February, Libya voted in favor of a resolution condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Basaga himself issued a series of tweets denouncing Russia’s attack on Ukraine as a “clear violation of international law and the sovereignty of a democratic Ukraine.” This is despite the fact that Russia, through the representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Maria Zakharova, welcomed his appointment as Prime Minister.
Libyan condemnation of Russian aggression
However, according to an analysis by Al-Monitor magazine, the statements of the new Libyan prime minister are unlikely to disrupt the relations of the Basaga camp with Moscow. Because they are mainly symbolic without leading to political consequences. “In fact, Libya remains an important area of ​​action for Russia,” said Thomas Folk. “Through its military and especially the private military company Wagner, Russia has repeatedly confirmed its influence in Libya in recent years, but now Turkey is being upgraded, which means that Libya will continue to be under foreign influence.”
Hager Ali, of the German Institute for Global and Regional Studies, says the war in Ukraine could have an impact inside Libya for reasons such as the management of its natural resources, such as oil fields. Players on the political scene could be tempted to divide the regions according to natural resources, and this would make it difficult to find political consensus.
DW – Kersten Knip / Irini Anastassopoulou
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