It’s no secret that Donald Trump is obsessed to win the Nobeland that is one reason why Ukraine and Russia is so harsh in negotiations and a ceasefire. However, the way the US president does so will not give him the result he expects, because so far he seems mainly to force Ukraine to agree on a capitulation. But Trump has a very big “weapon” in his quiver: he could win Nobel Peace by reducing the risk of a nuclear Armageddon.

In his first term, the Trump He tried, but failed to launch trilateral talks between the US, Russia and China on the restriction or even the reduction of nuclear weapons. Trump had already retired from one condition for the control of equipment with Russia and then refused to renew the only remaining, leaving the extension to his successor, Joe Biden. But even this agreement, called New Startexpires next February.

At that point, and for the first time by the early Cold warnothing will be able to limit the world’s large nuclear forces from a new race of equipment. In fact, the equipment rally is in full swing: China and North Korea boost their arsenal as quickly as they can, and nine countries with nuclear “modernize” their weapons. In the US this means upgrading heads, as well as bomber, submarines and missiles, at a cost of 1.7 trillion. dollars in 30 years, or $ 75 billion a year this decade.

The risk of nuclear warfare increases even faster than these numbers indicate, as countries also modify their nuclear weapons types and strategies for their use. OR Russia In particular, he manufactures more “regular” or “theatrical” weapons. Moscow has a lead of about 10-1 against the US in this category, which is not covered by the New Start. The US is also considering the possibility of re -playing a larger role in these limited nuclear.

Regular nuclear is defined as weapons intended as a last resort for the prevention of defeat in battle. On the contrary, strategic nuclear is constructed to completely destroy the enemy as retaliation for an upcoming nuclear attack. Regular weapons, however, have the ability to develop power that is equivalent to … several Hirosims. But because they have lower “performance” than strategies, they are considered more useful. Even so, war games suggest that any use, however limited they are, would immediately lead to uncontrolled escalation, and probably to Armageddon.

Trump, despite the chaos it causes in international affairs, understands this danger. In addition, its worldview, which is anathema for international law and multilateral organizations such as the United Nations, is happening to match nuclear reality.

The strategy of interaction of the Great Powers is important. In the nuclear sector, it is really reasonable to think about “spheres of influence” – as Americans, British and Soviet leaders did in Yalta near the end of World War IIwhen they broke Europe for the sake of stability.

The problem, of course, is that every nuclear superpower has different and conflicting interests. Russia knows it is economically and militarily weaker than the US and would lose a conventional war. Therefore, it appreciates the regular nuclear as a psychological deterrent and as a ultimate means to escalate to its advantage.

China is the only nation that has an official ‘first -use’ policy, but it still wants equality with the US to avoid coercion, especially if it ever conflicts for Taiwan. In the meantime, the US is wondering if they should continue to match only their strongest nuclear opponent, Russia, or need a numerical balance against Russia and China together, maybe both coincide with a possible crisis.

And yet everyone has a common interest: The prevention of a nuclear war, which, as Ronald Reagan and Michael Gorbachev say memorable, “cannot be won and should never be done.” In addition, everyone can accept the logic of the mutual “security dilemma”.

Trump could propose to the US and Russia to observe the ceilings of the New Start unofficially, whether or not it ends or not, pending a new deal. It could also push for the resumption of reciprocal inspections to build trust.

Meanwhile, Trump and his counterparts, Vladimir Putin in Russia and Si Jing In China, they must agree on a form. Trump wants conversations like Yalta between this Trinity. Russia prefers talks between all five nations characterized by the Treaty of Non -Propagation as legal nuclear forces, including France and the United Kingdom. One day, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel (which has never officially stated its arsenal) must also be introduced.

Either way, talks must be made and Trump claims that Putin and Si, whose authoritarian style admires, are open to the idea. “We would like to see the nuclearization,” he said, because that would be “an incredible thing for the planet.” The planet is not what usually has a priority in the worldview of America First, but it would be right. If Trump does, he deserves this Nobel Peace Prize, even if he needs to share it.