Ukraine could lose up to $ 6 billion as grain exports stall

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THE Ukraine there’s the possibility of lose revenue height up to $ 6 billion as well, due to the exclusion of its ports from Russian forcesis unable to sell millions of tonnes of wheat and corn, which were to be exported by June, a senior industry official said today.

Countries based on imports of Ukrainian wheatsuch as Egyptthe Turkey and the Yemenwill have to find alternative suppliers, many humanitarian aid organizations have warned.

THE Ukrainea major producer of wheat and seed oil, it exports 98% of its grain through its ports and only a very small part via rail, where costs are higher. The country was the fourth largest exporter of cereals in the world in the financial year 2020-21, while Russia was in third place, according to data from the International Cereals Council. The two countries together accounted for 22% of world exports.

But with Russian warships off the south of Ukraine to prevent cargo ships to sail from ports, including that of Odessa, grain exports have almost completely stopped since the start of the war on 24 February.

According to Ukrainian port officials, about 100 foreign-flagged ships have been stranded in ports due to the fighting. The Ministry of Infrastructure announced today that all ports on the Black Sea and the Azov Sea remain “temporarily closed” to all ships wishing to dock or set sail.

“We are facing a possible loss of $ 6 billion,” Mykola Gorbachev, president of the Ukrainian Grain Union, told Reuters. He said the country still had about 20 million tonnes of wheat and corn from the previous growing season, which were destined for export, at an average price of $ 300 per tonne. According to Gorbachev, it is not possible to transport such a large quantity by train, which could export only 600,000 tons per month, ie one tenth of the quantity transported to ports before the war.

The exports of agricultural products from Ukraine reached $ 27 billion last year, representing about half of total export earnings. “Now we are just losing this sector,” Gorbachev said.

Ukrainians not excluded from besieged cities, such as Mariupol or Kharkiv, do not have immediate food shortages, but the war could disrupt agricultural production for a long time. “Ukrainian farmers may be reluctant to sow this year, on the one hand because they fear for their safety and on the other because their production may remain unsold if the war continues,” Gorbachev explained. Ukrainian farmers say they do not have fertilizers but there is not enough fuel for their agricultural machinery. In the meantime, however, the sowing of barley and corn should start within the next month, because otherwise it will be too late, he added.

Over the weekend, an adviser to Ukrainian President Olech Ustenko said that if the war continued, the production of new agricultural products might not be enough for exports. “Ukraine has enough grain and food stocks to survive for a year, but if the war (…) continues it will not be able to export wheat to the world and there will be problems,” he said.

The farmers They have started sowing spring cereals in some areas but the mass sowing campaign has not yet begun, Deputy Agriculture Minister Taras Wisotski told Reuters last week.

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