Almost 3.5 million of the 44 million Ukrainians have already left their country since Russia invaded.
The speed of the Ukrainian exodus is unprecedented in recent history. Europe’s response to the crisis has been equally remarkable, both in its immediate generosity and in the contrast it forms with the cold treatment given by many European countries to refugees from Africa and the Middle East.
But the coming months are likely to test the West’s real engagement with Ukraine. As Russian attacks in western Ukraine increase, experts predict the number of refugees will double. Leaders in Europe and the US will need to start thinking about long-term resettlement efforts for war victims.
Many of the first refugees to leave Ukraine had relatives outside the country and had the means to reach them. This is unlikely to be the case for people who decide to leave in the coming weeks, said Steve Gordon, a security adviser for the humanitarian organization Mercy Corps.
“The next wave of refugees is going to need a lot more assistance,” he surmises.
The sudden arrival of millions of people in need of housing, education and healthcare will create a challenge for public services in European countries. Until now, this challenge has mainly been borne by Ukraine’s western neighbors – Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Moldova –, which are some of the poorest in Europe.
Moldova, for example, has just over 3 million inhabitants and one of the lowest GDPs per capita in Europe. The arrival of tens of thousands of Ukrainians has put the country in a “very, very complicated” situation, according to the Moldovan foreign minister.
If countries find it very difficult to integrate Ukrainian refugees, goodwill can turn to apathy or even hostility. “We know that hospitality may not last forever,” said Kathryn Mahoney, spokeswoman for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
The Syrian refugee crisis exemplifies how quickly public solidarity can wane. In 2015, newspapers published a photo of Syrian Alan Kurdi, 2, who drowned as his family tried to cross the Mediterranean to escape the civil war. In the face of widespread outrage over the image, the following week donations to the Red Cross fund for Syria multiplied a hundredfold.
Within two months, however, donations had fallen again. Even when people are faced with strong, explicit images, their attention dissipates after a few weeks, said Paul Slovic, a professor of psychology at the University of Oregon who studies the process of “psychic numbing” that can occur after tragedies. When solidarity loses strength, its place can be taken by rancor.
Around 2015, Denmark received over 30,000 refugees from Syria. Recently, however, the Danish authorities revoked the residence permits of some of them, despite reports of refugees who returned to Syria and were subjected to torture and sexual violence.
Deprived of the right to live in Denmark, some of the Syrian refugees in that country have been held for months in deportation centers, with no indication of when they will be able to leave.
Before psychic numbing sets in and the days of the Russian invasion begin to seem all one to outsiders, world leaders need to create comprehensive and durable protections for Ukrainian refugees. The European Union (EU) got off to a good start. The bloc unanimously agreed to authorize a majority of Ukrainians to live, work and study across the bloc for up to three years.
A plan must now begin to be drawn up for the equitable resettlement of refugees in all EU member countries. Poland has already absorbed an incredible number of people; countries like Germany, France and Spain must prepare to help millions of others find housing, schools and health care. All countries need to open their arms to Ukrainians and people of other nationalities who used to live in the country, some of whom are facing discrimination at the border.
“Welcoming refugees is an act that benefits the global public,” said David Miliband, director of the NGO International Rescue Committee. “We need to share the responsibility.” In the United States, President Joe Biden has already granted Ukrainians the right to stay and work in the country for 18 months. But those protections only apply to Ukrainians who were already in the US.
If the Biden administration is willing to arm Ukrainian fighters – whose victories benefit the US by reducing Russia’s real power and perception of its power – it also needs to share responsibility for the Ukrainians whose homes are being bombed. It will be difficult, but not impossible. The Trump administration has reduced the number of refugees allowed to enter the US year after year, forcing resettlement agencies to lay off staff and close offices.
To recover the employees who worked on these programs, Congress must pass the Grace Bill, which sets a minimum number of refugees the US takes in each year. This would help assure potential hires that their jobs are not going to disappear after the next presidential election. In addition to bolstering US refugee programs, Biden should allow people fleeing Ukraine to live in the US without a visa. A similar measure should be adopted by the United Kingdom, which until the 14th had issued only 4,000 visas to Ukrainians.
Ukrainians will likely need help for many years to come. History has shown us that refugee situations almost inevitably last longer than anticipated. If the Russian war turns into a years-long occupation, millions of Ukrainians could end up like refugees from Syria, living in legal, economic and emotional limbo. People who have already lost their homes and livelihoods will also have their future stolen.
It is not mandatory that it be so. Almost all countries have already expressed solidarity with Ukraine. This compassion is a way of redefining the treatment of refugees from Ukraine and around the world.
