The European Union is expected to continue to throw billions of euros into Turkey, despite the mass persecutions launched by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan against his political opponents.

Brussels warned Ankara, as Politico reports, to “keep democratic values” after the arrest of opposition leader Ekrem Imamoglu on the weekend. However, Turkey’s strategic importance may lead the EU to “close its eyes”. And Erdogan knows it.

As for the Turkish leader, “whatever he does, the EU should follow it,” said Dimitar Betsev, a professor at the University of Oxford.

Two European officials, who asked to remain anonymous, told Politico that Turkey’s situation as an EU candidate was obliged to adhere to democratic values ​​and that Brussels would respond to violations.

“We are watching the ongoing situation in Turkey with great concern,” one said. With more than a thousand people, including journalists, who have been arrested by security forces since the beginning of turmoil last week, “the latest developments are contrary to the very logic of EU accession.”

However, given Turkey’s importance to immigration, trade, energy and defense, any EU reaction is unlikely to overthrow the relations between Brussels and Ankara, the other official acknowledged.

Turkey has applied for accession to the EU in 1999. Although talks have stopped in the last decade, the country is still receiving billions in accession capital. Ankara has also received about 9 billion euros in aid to accommodate refugees from the Middle East and is ready to receive huge sums to support European defense industries.

Now, as an important hub for oil and gas exports, Turkey is enjoying trade flows with the EU worth more than 200 billion euros a year. From the complete Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it is also a key to controlling access to the Black Sea and imposing sanctions on Moscow. Recently, it has been mentioned as the main country that will participate in any future mission of peacekeeping forces to Ukraine.

“The situation before Imamoglu’s arrest was good for the EU because there was enough democracy,” Becev said. “Recent developments,” he added, “are not serious enough to change that.”

The best defense

As a candidate for the EU, Turkey may possibly gain access to joint supplies worth 800 billion euros from funds intended to boost EU defense spending, according to the “Ready 2030” plan presented by the European Council last week.

However, Greece and Cyprus, which are in long -term clashes with Turkey, are pushing for restrictions, with diplomats telling Politico that they intend to impose a clause that will require defensive aid to “without prejudice to the specific nature of the security and defense policy”.
With its armed forces, trained by NATO, and its huge military-industrial sector, Ankara is convinced that these objections will be overcome.

“If Europeans want Turkey’s participation in specific areas – for example, troops sending to Ukraine in the future – then they will have to give access to Turkey,” former Turkey ambassador to EU, Selim Genke, said.

Thanas said that the internal situation is dramatic, “there is no longer a law” in Turkey, he argued, but predicted that “as the EU seems to need Turkey, they will not put pressure on us.” Concerning the western values ​​that countries must adhere to for integration, he said that Erdogan was “playing play with it”.

The stance of Greece and Cyprus

Greece and Cyprus now have to perform a difficult balance as they were in the process of normalizing relations with Ankara before the last political crisis.

“We will of course support a strict position by condemning the current developments in Turkey, but without being the reason,” said a senior Greek official, acknowledging that even Athens could not go a long way.

“The defense industry remains a big gap for Europe, and this paves the way for this exchange policy we see unfolding.”

Cyprus is also in a difficult position, as Turkey seems to have had a much more reconciliation tone during informal talks on the Cyprus issue in Geneva last week.

“Empty EU pressure is essential,” said Cypriot MEP Michalis Hadjipantela, calling for “targeted sanctions”. But at the same time, “the measures should be targeted and linked to progress on the above issues in order to avoid further alienation of the country, which would lead to more provocative policies.”