Eight days before Russia started the war in Ukraine, the European Union’s highest court ruled in judgment that “it is legal to suspend access to funding for member countries that violate basic principles of the rule of law”. The resolution, in effect, was a message to the governments of Poland and Hungary, which for years have been advancing against democracy and contrary to European law.
Today, Warsaw has 36 billion euros (R$ 196 billion) blocked by the EU, which is trying to pressure the local government to reverse decisions considered unconstitutional by the bloc — the amount corresponds to 7% of the country’s GDP; Budapest has 7 billion euros (R$ 38 billion) frozen, 5% of GDP.
In the war, however, the Polish speech aligned with that of Western Europe, with the local government positioning itself as one of the most aggressive spokespersons against the action of Vladimir Putin. Warsaw has already taken in more than 2 million refugees (out of 3.5 million in all) and has even insisted on sending MiG-29 fighter jets to Kiev, in an operation that would involve the US and NATO — Washington rejected it, out of fear. to take the war to another level.
Last week, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki took part in one of the strongest diplomatic gestures of support for Ukraine and, accompanied by the Czech and Slovenian premiers, took the train to Kiev amid the Russian siege. To the meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky, the politician also took Jaroslaw Kaczynski, leader of Law and Justice (PiS), a party that has a majority in the Polish Parliament.
The symbolism of the movements, for analysts, aims to change the view on the country to help convince the European Commission (the EU Executive) to unlock the fund intended for post-pandemic economic recovery.
Deputy Foreign Minister Pawel Jablonski, speaking to Bloomberg, asked on the 14th for the EU to release the funds, citing that “millions of euros” will be needed to integrate refugees. “This is a challenge that Europe has not faced in decades. We need to let go of smaller things,” he said.
For Jakub Jaraczewski, coordinator of the think tank Democracy Reporting International, the bloc now needs to weigh up to what extent it is worth putting pressure on Warsaw when there is a common enemy — namely, Moscow. “The European Commission knows that to stop helping Poland financially means not supporting a country that needs help, but it is aware that it cannot give up the rule of law altogether.”
The main point of contention with Poland revolves around a reform of the judiciary implemented in early 2020. The bill created, among other things, a disciplinary chamber with powers to reduce salaries and revoke the immunity of judges — a form of direct interference. of the Executive.
Another layer of dispute arose when the government-aligned Constitutional Court ruled in October that parts of EU treaties affect the country’s sovereignty because they are incompatible with local law. In practice, the resolution would mean that the Polish Constitution is above European law.
Before the war, Warsaw even made waves to Brussels, with indications that it would be willing to negotiate. In early February, President Andrzej Duda sent a bill to Parliament that would abolish the disciplinary chamber, arguing that it was necessary to appease relations with the European Commission.
In the country’s political system, however, Duda has little or no power to make this kind of decision — even though he aligns with PiS. This is where the positioning in the face of the war and the Polish movement come in to try to convince the bloc that the moment is critical to the point that Brussels will neglect certain internal policies.
EU officials consulted by the British newspaper The Guardian indicate that Warsaw has a chance of success, although not complete. According to this version, an eventual agreement would be linked to the closing of the disciplinary chamber, without the judges who have already been punished receiving amnesty.
For Monika Sus, associate professor at the Polish Academy of Sciences, however, there is no way out without the ruling party taking a decision aligned with Brussels. “I can’t imagine a deal with the European Commission without the government restoring the independence of the judiciary,” she says.
She points out that the scenario could be different if the war in Ukraine lasts much longer. “Then we will have a humanitarian crisis in Poland, and the European Commission may say, ‘Okay, let it go. [reforma da Justiça] there, we have to focus on the refugees’.”
The Polish stance, in any case, is not based solely on political calculation. The anti-Russian sentiment in the country – which had its territory divided between Nazis and Soviets in World War II and later suffered from communist repression – is great.
“One of the few areas where the Polish government and opposition agree is on history and identity. Poles feel that if they don’t stop Putin in Ukraine, they could be next,” said Milan Nic of the German Council on Foreign Relations.
Jaraczewski defines “political suicide” as the scenario in which a Polish official eventually openly supports Russia.
The scene is somewhat different in Hungary, which is both part of NATO and the EU and ruled by a conservative nationalist.
Viktor Orbán has also asked the EU to release funds, but has avoided firm statements against the Kremlin. The justification, in this case, may be linked to the parliamentary elections in early April – in which, for the first time since taking power in 2010, the prime minister will face a united opposition, albeit with a remote chance of victory.
For analysts, Orbán is trying to sell the population the idea that he is helping the country by staying away from war. In recent years, the conservative politician has abandoned Budapest’s anti-Soviet bias and moved closer to Putin, though he now supports European sanctions against the Russians.
The dubious attitude towards the conflict, however, should have little value in negotiations with the European Commission. That’s because, according to Nic, recent violations of the rule of law in Hungary are more systematic and cannot be resolved by dismantling an agency alone or vetoing a law.
The fact that the country has 10 million inhabitants is also important — Poland has 40 million.
