Three scenarios on the course and impact of ‘unorthodox’ as it characterizes it, commercial policy of the US president, Donald Trumpthe German Credit Evaluation House has been drawn up Scope Ratings.

The head of the house for the evaluations of countries, Alvise lenkh-yunusstates in his analysis that ‘if applied, the duties They would have been the biggest shock to commerce for more than 100 years, “and adds that their maintenance” will have significant consequences for both the US and countries’ creditworthiness. “

Even if Trump fully withdraws the duties he announced, which is unlikely, “the confidence of previous alliances and supply chains would not be restored, resulting in some permanent financial damage,” he adds.

Given the great uncertainty due to the difficulty of predicting the movements of the US president, Scope trained three scenarios in view of the forthcoming revision of his forecasts for growth and fiscal figures.

First, the Light duty scenario, where the duties announced are the “ceiling” and a starting point for US negotiations with other countries. A combination of the US by other countries and the application of structural reforms to stimulate domestic demand will lead to a new balance, based on a slightly greater degree of protectionism than before, but will eventually not cause much damage to trade and capital flows.

In this scenario, America enters technical recession – two consecutive quarters with negative GDP – but in 2025 there is a positive growth. Global uncertainty is limited,

Secondly, the Commercial War Scenario. The announced duties are largely applied and become a permanent feature of American commercial policy. Reacting, most major economies – including the European Union and China – are in countermeasures, resulting in a significant reduction in world demand, redirecting of supply chains and significant uncertainty in 2025, with capital flows remaining free. In this scenario, the US will be in recession for the whole of 2025 and the adverse effects on global development and credit conditions will become more intense, especially for countries with closer trade ties with the US.

The third scenario, which is the worst, concerns the event of a financial and financial crisis. According to this, the announced duties are largely permanent and treated with reciprocal duties from most major economies, including the EU and China. This scenario further predicts that the Trump government accelerates the course of isolationism, establishing capital controls. The rules -based global commercial and financial system is in danger of collapse and confidence in the US dollar, as a global safe asset, is significantly weakened, leading to a great reassessment of US assets KAI causing financial crisis. A further consequence will be the entry of the American economy into a deep recession in 2025-2026. The extent of the crisis, in such a scenario, creates great credit hazards for countries.

Scope notes that the ultimate impact on growth, inflation, public debt and other indicators that determine its credit ratings will ultimately depend on the macroeconomic environment resulting from US policies, the reactions of the commercial partners and the subordinates.

The degree to which US policy affects other countries will depend on their dependence on exports of products to the US as well as their financial interconnections.

The most exposed countries, in terms of exports to dollars, are China, Mexico, Canada and Germany, while Vietnam (with exports account for 26%of GDP), Canada (20%), Ireland (12%) and Ireland (12%) and Ireland (12%).

Regarding the interconnection with the American banking system, the G7 countries are the most exposed – with the first in Japan followed by Britain, Canada, France and Germany.