OR 30 -day truce It is a proposal that the Kremlin can neither reject nor accept. But Europeans’ proposal for Ukraine may force Moscow to an inconvenient choice: to reveal Vladimir Putin’s true moods for the war.

Europe’s leaders seem to have understood that peace talks with the US did not make sense, as Putin at the same time seemed to plan the attacks during the summer months.

In addition, the Ukrainian army had just more than hours more than hours to prepare its first line of defense, for a time when the country’s borders may have decided.

Finally, Ukraine, France, the United Kingdom, Germany and Poland They had few choices at their disposal. The loss of the patience of the Trump government, which did not hide its dissatisfaction with both Moscow and more for Kiev, was pregnant with a great danger: leading the United States to abandon the help of Ukraine, along with their efforts for a peaceful solution.

As a result, the huge diplomatic-matte-matte-matte movement from Macron, Starmer and Zelenski last week brought the White House to a position where he had to support an immediate European attempt to take control of the outcome of the war.

Europe is imposing a proposal initially made by the US and Ukraine – the 30 -day unconditional ceasefire offered for the first time after a bilateral meeting in Saudi Arabia almost two months ago. But they also force the White House to accelerate, watch the truce, and then support the consequences, “huge sanctions”, as Macron called them if the initiative collapses.

How will Russia react

Now the previous response of Kremlin “We have to talk about shades” is not enough. Must agree, challenge or ignore the proposal. It is possible, as we have seen in the past, invent a complicated answer.

Russia may agree with the pause, but it can then cause a new rise, accusing Ukraine of breaking the deal. Or question certain elements of the proposal, using the attacks on Kursk and Belgorod, forcing the White House to dispute whether he should reject the partial observance of the Cave from the Kremlin. Moscow may choose to completely ignore the proposal and use the magic of Trump-Putin’s telephone conversation to overturn the situation.

This is the most important diplomatic moment of the war, perhaps the most important moment of the conflict to date, and certainly the most important 36 hours in recent months. Time is a serious problem: something that must last 30 days must be built in just 30 hours.

Giant questions remain for Ukraine and its allies on how this ceasefire will come into force. Can Kiev ordered his powers not to counterattack on self -defense? If the US is going to watch the truce, as Macron suggested, do they have the potential, in sufficient quality and quantity, to cover hundreds of miles of violent fronts? The exact elements of Moscow’s violations will be the key to helping Ukraine and Europe respond to the inevitable wave of Russian misinformation and accusations that can be accompanied by a truce.

The consequences

The cost for Kiev and Europe next month may be significant. Ukraine could lose ground. The White House can get out of the process and return to the narrative again that Zelenski is the problem. The unity of Europe – which appeared at a very high level today in Kiev and is supported by more than twelve other countries from New Zealand to Canada, can only deteriorate from its current climax, especially if US support for Ukraine retreats.

But the cost of inactivity was higher. Losing Trump his patience would probably be detrimental to Kiev, more than for Moscow. Putin, who had another two months to escape from the front line of Kiev, would let Zelenski face another horrible winter.

Ukraine and its European allies are seeking, in essence, a revelation by Putin: to reveal his real plans. If he really wishes peace, he will accept the proposal. The road chosen by the Europeans to get there is made to manipulate Putin, no matter how it sounds unlikely.

Listening to the leaders of Europe’s five largest soldiers in Kiev on Saturday, it appeared that most had decided that Putin did not want peace and would not really think of “getting down his weapons” for a month. The bet of the five European leaders, then, is great. They have little time to “strip” Putin’s intentions and convince Donald Trump that he must review his attitude and become tougher with Moscow.

The path that Europe’s leaders seem to envision is the deterioration of war – where Putin violates the truce, is affected by “huge sanctions” and Europe must escalate its military support in Ukraine. They do not seem to believe that the Kremlin wants the war to stop. The next few weeks are planned for a future in which they have to prove to Trump that he is misled by Moscow and drag the White House permanently and undoubtedly in their camp.