Europe could survive without the military support of the United States but would need 25 years To replace Americans and the cost would reach up to $ 1 trillion, according to a new report.

His study International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS)published on Thursday, finds that a hypothetical US departure from Europe would leave NATO members exposed to Russia’s threat and facing “harsh choices” on how to fill the huge gaps.

The cost for the complete replacement of US equipment and staff is estimated at about $ 1 trillion at a depth of 25 years, according to the study. This includes one -off equipment costs ranging from $ 226 to $ 344 billion, depending on the quality of the material to be purchased, as well as additional costs for maintenance, human resources and support.

The most expensive element in the “Shopping List” would be the 400 regular fighter aircraft, followed by 20 destroyers and 24 long range anti -aircraft missiles.

IISS also estimates that, in the event of a large military operation to deal with Russian attack, the cost of replacing US staff, estimated at 128,000 troops, would exceed $ 12 billion.

Evaluation does not include other significant gaps, the cost of which is difficult to calculate. These include administration and control, coordination, space technology, information collection and surveillance, as well as the cost of nuclear weapons.

Europeans would also have to fill critical positions, such as that of the Supreme Allied Commander of Europe, the head of NATO forces in Epirus and the second highest military position in the Alliance. Without the US in the spotlight, it would also be necessary to strengthen diplomatic cooperation and coordination.

Easy to say, hard to do

The vacuum that would leave the US departure from Europe would require a combination of time, long -term political commitment and more ambitious investment.

However, even with unlimited political will and the necessary funding, the European Defense Industry would not have, at least in the short term, the ability to meet increased demand, according to IISS. Arms manufacturers would have problems with the supply chain, a lack of specialized workforce, as well as problems due to financial and regulatory constraints.

“We Buy European”, a vision promoted by European Commission President Ursula von der Laienne, probably will probably not be implemented soon. Even if there is an increase in land -based defense equipment orders, other sectors – such as the sailor and aerospace – have received minimal investments. In some areas, such as missile artillery or low -visibility fighter aircraft, the market for local products is simply not an option.

However, despite Europe’s prolonged dependence on US military industries, there is evidence of progress.

The IISS analysis of defense supplies announced between February 2022 and September 2024 shows that 52% of total value was assigned to European companies, compared to 34% in the United States. The authors of the report estimate that the trend of “buy European” may be further enhanced.

Europe also spends more money on its defense. Following Russia’s full -scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, several NATO countries intensified their efforts to achieve or exceed the target of the alliance for defense spending at least 2% of GDP.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House was also an unexpected catalyst in favor of European defense autonomy. His demands for a greater contribution of European allies to NATO as well as the suspicion that the US can abandon their European security commitments have created doubts about America’s credibility as an ally. This makes the idea of ​​a “genuine European defense”, which is consistently supported by French President Emmanuel Macron, more attractive.

However, Europe’s governments have limited room for increasing their defense spending without exceeding public debt.

In addition, social discontent in countries such as Spain and Italy, which are under pressure on state budgets, shows that public resistance to increased military spending could be an obstacle – especially if Europe is called upon to stand on its own.