In a complex geopolitical deterioration game, Volodimir Zelenski and Vladimir Putin have been trying to convince Donald Trump that the other is the obstacle to peace. At the moment, the Ukrainian president seems to have the advantage.

During the peace talks of Constantinople, the first direct negotiations from 2022 that took place following Trump’s proposal, the Ukrainian president won one more.

Zelenski, despite being cautious, responded to the call of the US president and gave the “present” to Turkey, while Putin chose to abstain, sending a low -level delegation, which Zelenski described as “decorative”.

This image reinforces the diplomatic position of the Ukrainian president against his Russian counterpart, at a time when Donald Trump has personally engaged in trying to reach an agreement between the two sides.

Is this the moment when Donald Trump will finally admit that Vladimir Putin has no serious intention to negotiate the end of the war that began three years ago?

The Ukrainians certainly hope for it. Ever since the incident in the oval office between Zelenski, Trump and US Vice President Jay Di Vance earlier this year, the Ukrainian president has been trying to avoid impulsive reactions that would have been out of strategy. On the contrary, he appears committed to the plan that he and his team drafted shortly after Trump’s re -election: not to directly cause the US president.

Kiev’s plan was to show Putin as the ‘Mr Nyet’investing in that Donald Trump will realize that Putin is not willing to get in good faith negotiations.

“If I were going, Putin would come too”

However, it is not clear if Trump has reached this point. On the contrary, continues to appear alternative to the Russian president. Commenting on Putin’s decision not to attend talks in Constantinople, Trump said from Qatar on Thursday: “Why go, since I’m not going? I never thought he could go if I’m not there. “

This excuse, however, is not enough to give Putin alibi, as Trump himself had left open to Turkey, if Putin went open. The Kremlin, however, kept everyone in agony until the last minute, announcing that the Russian president would not go to Constantinople on the eve of the talks.

An additional sign of this tactic was the selection of the head of the Russian delegation: Presidential Councilor Vladimir Mentinsky, who served as Minister of Culture from 2012 to 2020 with a strong patriotic profile and was supervised by the recent remodeling of the officials.

All Putin did by sending this dealership was to offer the absolutely minimum to diplomacy, just to extend the “dance”. As Zelenski noted, in addition to his own presence, Ukraine was represented by a supreme -level delegation “ready to make any decision could lead to a coveted just peace”, adding that “I’m here. I think this is a very clear message. “

The main causes

So, once again, the Kremlin is delayed, a tactic that repeatedly applies when it participates in negotiations where it has no real interest in reaching a compromise unless its own terms are fully satisfied. His first term is that he does not want any truce before giving concessions that would mean the end of democratic Ukraine.

This is yet another indication that a substantial progress remains a distant perspective. The Kremlin strongly insists on its maximalist goals, promoting them under the pretext of the need to tackle the “radical causes” of the war, a demand for the elimination of democracy in Ukraine and the obstruction of its political march to NATO. Pseudo-Historian Mentinsky, head of the Russian delegation, is sure to repeat the “root causes” in Turkey.

The Trump team has so far shown that he is willing to be drawn up with Putin. The Russian leader has deliberately sought to change the order of negotiations so that a truce can follow an agreement that satisfies him, not the other way around. In this way he hopes either to exhaust the United States or to force them to be completely withdrawn, as he has been implied that Foreign Minister Marco Rubio is likely.

The Russian leader and his top associates have emphasized their “red lines” for a peace agreement for months, conditions that would, in practice, devise the Ukrainian state. They want guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO, that it will remain geopolitical neutral and unable to determine its fate, and that it will be strict restrictions on its equipment. Moscow also demands that Crimea and the four eastern regions that claim to be part of the Russian Federation are internationally recognized.

Trump has recently implied that he may need to resort to tougher measures, including imposing more economic sanctions on Moscow if Putin does not commit to a peace agreement. However, at least for the time being, it seems to allow the Russian president to escape, determine the rhythm itself, and resort to a manual that has reused.

As he had done with US negotiators on the Syrian issue, he leads his interlocutors deeper into a maze of conditions and “radical causes”, seeking to exhaust them, secure his basic goals, or drag the process into an endless and impassable negotiation.

The question that remains is whether Trump will get tired of all this. For him, Ukraine has always been just a part of a larger diplomatic game to restore relationships between Washington and Moscow, an obstacle on the road. The bet for Putin is to keep Trump’s hope alive that a deal can be reached, that a reset is possible.

What Zelenski is trying to achieve is to make the US president understand that Putin is in the wake of him.