Socialists take over in Portugal with absolute majority and strength to impose agenda

Socialist António Costa takes office for the third time as Prime Minister of Portugal this Wednesday (30), with at least two crucial differences in scenario from previous terms.

The first is a comfortable legislative advantage, with the surprising absolute majority won in early January elections. With 120 of the 230 deputies in Parliament, the Socialist Party will be able to impose its agenda without depending on negotiations with other parties, as it had been doing since it took power in November 2015.

Although the path may be facilitated in this way, the government is still subject to other forms of political limitations, especially through the Presidency, under Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. Here is the second difference: “We are likely to see greater intervention by the President of the Republic in this legislature”, says Francisco Pereira Coutinho, political analyst and professor of law at Universidade Nova de Lisboa.

“But we will have a new political cycle, with a very different dynamic. The opposition will no longer be able to block most of the government’s legislative activity, because of the vast majority of the PS.”

The first demonstration of the reinforced power will be with the State Budget for this year, whose disapproval, at the end of last October, was the pivot of the crisis that led to the dissolution of the Assembly of the Republic.

Although it was classified by many analysts as the most left-wing budget presented by the current prime minister, the project was disapproved due to the contrary votes of former PS partners in the so-called “geringonça” – the left post-election coalition that allowed Costa to rise.

With enough votes to guarantee the text’s approval, the socialists have already announced that they will resubmit (and approve) the proposal without major changes.

In relation to the president, the most feared mechanism is the prerogative that the head of state has to dismiss the prime minister and dissolve Parliament, calling for new elections. The option, which was used for the early January election, was dubbed a “nuclear bomb” in the country’s political life.

The president also has the power to veto laws. Although the veto can later be overridden in Parliament, its use could represent additional delays and constraints to the process. Another mechanism is to forward projects approved by the Legislature for review by the Constitutional Court, the highest court in the country. A former professor of constitutional law, Rebelo de Sousa – who spent his entire political career in the center-right – has already used the option a few times.

Coutinho highlights, however, that the prime minister and the president have a history of good relationship. “The relationship was always quite good, even at a time when António Costa had a very small parliamentary group, in the first four years of his duties”, says the political analyst.

Without the prospect of being able to interfere in the approval of most laws, the other parties ask for an improvement in the dialogue in the Assembly of the Republic. One of the main proposals is the return of biweekly debates with the prime minister.

Started in 2007, these Sabbaths ended in 2020, with the support of António Costa himself. Although he has never sympathized with the format, the prime minister has shown openness to its return.

Additional scrutiny of government activity is advocated above all in a legislature in which Portugal will receive an unprecedented volume of European funds. The so-called PRR (Recovery and Resilience Plan), will give Portugal more than 16.6 billion euros as part of the European Union’s aid package to support the countries of the bloc after the crisis caused by Covid-19.

Thanks to the reinforced coffers, the Ministry of Finance should have an even greater role. António Costa chose the former mayor of Lisbon Fernando Medina for the post.

The new government is also the first in the country’s history to have more women than men in top positions. Of the 17 portfolios, 9 will have a female command — including Defense, for the first time with a woman at the helm, and the Presidency, sort of number 2 in power.

The new legislature will also be marked by the recomposition of opposition parties in Parliament. The largest opposition party, the center-right PSD (Social-Democratic Party), has not yet defined who will succeed deputy Rui Rio in the party’s leadership.

With this, two other subtitles further to the right may end up with more protagonism. With controversial proposals such as the return of the death penalty and the chemical castration of pedophiles, Chega, which in 2019 won only one seat in Parliament, is now the third largest party in the country, with 12 deputies.

Party leader, deputy André Ventura, who came in third in the last presidential elections, has already stated that he intends to occupy the vacant space left by the PSD.

The fourth largest political force in the country, with eight deputies, the Liberal Initiative also shows signs that it will dispute more prominence in the Assembly of the Republic. “Parliament will be the center of the opposition. The fight that will take place in the coming years is to see who will embody António Costa’s right-wing position”, evaluates political scientist Marina Costa Lobo, a researcher at the University’s Institute of Social Sciences. from Lisbon.

According to her, who is the coordinator of the Portuguese Electoral Behavior project, the leader of Chega should try to use his presence in Parliament as a stage to establish himself as the main figure of the opposition and to secure himself for future elections.