In addition to Israel’s stated goal of neutralizing what it characterizes as a “existential threat” of Iran’s nuclear capabilities through Friday’s attacks, Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have a wider goal: changing the regime in Tehran.

The Israeli prime minister seems to hope that the unprecedented blows against the Islamic Republic will trigger a chain reaction, leading to a social upheaval capable of overturning Tehran’s regime, the BBC said in an analysis.

This is also demonstrated by the message he sent to the people of Iran on Friday night: “It is time for the Iranian people to unite around their flag and historical legacy, defending their freedom from the evil and oppressive regime.”

Many Iranians are unhappy with the financial situation, limited freedom of speech, the oppression of women’s rights and minorities.

In this light, Israel’s attack is a real threat to Iran’s leadership.

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The raids allegedly killed the Chief of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), the Chief of the General Staff and many senior officers – and the attacks have not yet been completed. Iran reacted by moving a barrage of rocket attacks against Israeli territory, stating that it had hit “dozens of targets, military centers and bases”.

The situation escalated rapidly. After the Iranian retaliation, Netanyahu warned: “followed”, suggesting that other Iranian leaders may be targeted.

Israel may calculate that attacks and targeted murders can destabilize the regime and pave the way for popular uprising.

At least, Netanyahu seems to hope.

But it’s a risk – and even big.

There is no evidence that such a chain reaction could begin; and even if it starts, it is uncertain where it will lead.

Those who have the greatest power in Iran are those who control the Armed Forces and the Economy – and they are mainly a man who belong to the hard -core circles of the Revolution Guards and other uninformed bodies.

They do not have to organize a coup as they are already in power – and could lead Iran towards an even more conflicting course.

Another possibility is the collapse of the regime, which would have a consequence of chaos and volatility.

With a population of almost 90 million, such a development in Iran would have a huge impact throughout the Middle East.

Israel’s goal seems to be a revolt that will lead to the rise of a more friendly leadership. But the big question is: Who could be this alternative?

Iranian opposition forces remain deeply fragmented and none seems like a real alternative.

Following the uprisings of 2022, in the context of the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement, some groups attempted to form a broad replacement alliance.

However, it was quickly dissolved by disagreements about leadership and form that should have a new regime.

Some in Israel may see as an alternative some of these personalities or groups.

For example, Reza Pachlavi, son of Shah, who was overturned in 1979, lives exile and has been trying for years to persuade foreign agents to support his struggle. He has made some visits to Israel in recent years, and although he has acquired some popularity, it is not clear whether he can essentially lead an effort to change the regime.

There is also Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK), an exiled team that supports the overthrow of the regime, but rejects the restoration of the monarchy.

Founded as a leftist Muslim team, he fought against the Shah. After the revolution, he allied with Saddam Hussein in the war against Iran, which made it an unprecedented interior.

It remains active and maintains contact with circles in the US, including Trump supporters, such as Mike Pompeo, John Bolton and Rudy Juliani, but her influence has been significantly reduced compared to the first Trump term.

There are other political forces, from supporters of the secular democracy to supporters of the Criminal Monarchy.

It may still be too early to assess the complete effect of Friday’s attacks. In the exchange of fire in 2023, there were no evidence that the Iranian people then took the events as an opportunity to overthrow the regime.

This time, however, the disaster is unprecedented.

Does Iran have choices?

The question remains: What is Iran’s strategy now?

Despite retaliation, Tehran does not seem to have reliable options.

One way out would be to return to the US negotiating table, as Donald Trump has demanded – an option that some consider to be a “safe exit”. But for the leadership of Iran, this is equivalent to acknowledgment of defeat.

The most likely option seems to be the continuation of attacks on Israel – something that the Iranian regime has promised its supporters.

However, this can cause new and fiercest answers from Israel.

Tehran has also threatened to hit US bases and embassies in the area in the past. But such actions are extremely risky and could lead to immediate US involvement – something that Tehran seeks to avoid.

None of these options are easy or safe, and their impacts are impossible to predict themselves.

The dust of attacks has not yet been burned. And no one can predict exactly what has changed or if something has changed until it is down.