War in Ukraine: Conflict strengthens European Union despite energy dilemma

March 28, 2022

Robert

This is the War in Ukraine newsletter. Do you want to receive it in your email? Sign up below.

The 33-day invasion of Ukrainian territory by Russia brought a new shock to the European Union, which is still experiencing the trauma of Brexit two years after the United Kingdom left. With the war, the 27 countries of the bloc created in 1992 have come together around measures to give financial and military aid to Ukraine, welcome refugees and apply punishments to the Vladimir Putin government and the politicians and businessmen who support it.

Yes but… Europeans are not fully aligned when it comes to how to act on Russia. Our guest today, the columnist for sheet Mathias Alencastro, a researcher at Cebrap and professor of international relations at UFABC, explains that there is a division between the bloc’s countries.

Those who advocate deepening sanctions: Franceled by Emmanuel Macron, Poland and Spain;
Those who want the sanctions to be maintained, but that they don’t weigh too much on the European’s wallet: Germany, Italy and Hungary.

Understand: 40% of the natural gas and about 33% of the oil consumed in Europe comes from Russia. In Germany, dependence on gas reaches 50%. In retaliation for the sanctions, Russia has already threatened to cut off gas emissions to Europe and charge it in rubles.

The European Union says it will not accept “blackmail” and discusses ways to gradually reduce its dependence on Russian gas.

The mainland is the main destination for Ukrainians fleeing the attacks. Almost 60% of the 3.8 million refugees estimated by the UN went to neighboring Poland, a country that has joined the European chorus against Russia.

Below, Alencastro analyzes the role of the European Union in the face of war and how the conflict can impact the future of the bloc:

You wrote that the war strengthens the EU as a bloc. Can this unity fill a power gap left by the end of the Merkel era? At the same time that Merkel led, she was also an obstacle to the construction of this bloc. Germany was against greater integration from a political, financial and, above all, energy point of view, because it had this privileged relationship with Russia.

The war is moving Europe’s decision-making center from Berlin to Brussels. As Germany proved to be very fragile with its dependent relationship with Russia, only a European response, in the holistic sense, can handle the challenges that lie ahead.

From the point of view of the leaders, how do you evaluate the performance of Macron and Scholz in the mediation of the conflict? They are playing different roles, as Scholz is heavily conditioned by Germany’s structural dependence on Russian gas, which prevents the country from leading this blockade against Russia. And France took advantage of this space to assume the leadership of the European bloc.

Now you have a new alliance forming within Europe between countries that are in favor of a deepening of sanctions and a more accelerated search for energy autonomy in Europe —led by Macron, but also accompanied by Poland and Spain — and a bloc a slightly more realistic bloc that defends that the sanctions be maintained, but that they do not weigh too much on the European’s wallet. In this group are Germany, Italy and Hungary.

Should the harsh sanctions applied by the EU change the European economy itself? The sanctions were strong and surprising, because they were implemented very quickly and by consensus, which is rare — in Europe, everything is slow and divisive. However, on the gas issue, sanctions were very limited by Germany’s resistance and a strategic view that something had to be kept in a hat if the war escalated.

Do not get lost

Since February, the European Union has applied four rounds of sanctions that have hit 877 people and 62 Russian entities or supporters in retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine.

See key measures and their targets

23.feb

Context: after Russia’s recognition of the independence of the breakaway provinces of Donbass in eastern Ukraine

Main targets: 351 members of the Duma (Russian Parliament) and 27 people and entities such as politicians, military, business people, banks
Restrictions: Asset freeze, loan blocking and, in some cases, EU travel ban

25.feb

Context: day after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Main targets: Vladimir Putin and Sergei Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia, and members of the Russian National Security Council
Restrictions: freezing of Putin’s and Lavrov’s assets; expansion of financial restrictions to 70% of the Russian banking market and to the main public companies; and ban on exports of European goods and technologies to Russian sectors such as oil and transport

28.feb and 2.mar

Context: escalation of Russian attacks on Ukrainian territory

Main targets: financial system and communication companies
Restrictions: closing airspace to all Russian aircraft, banning transactions with the Central Bank of Russia; banning access to Swift (system of global transactions) to seven Russian banks; and EU suspension of state-owned media Russia Today and Sputnik

15.mar

Context: escalation of Russian attacks on Ukrainian territory

Main targets: billionaire Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich and other “oligarchs, lobbyists and propagandists who insist on the Kremlin’s narrative of the situation in Ukraine”
Restrictions: freezing of assets (in individual cases); prohibition of all transactions with certain public companies; and restrictions on trade in iron, steel and luxury goods

Source: European Council