Erdogan’s big bet with Courtic

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan plays the biggest bet of his career: he wants to take the Great Kurdish minority after decades of conflict to survive politically. And the way he does this is to give the prisoner of PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan a place in the country’s political scene.

As Politico says in his analysis, Erdogan loses his support in Turkey even from his traditional strongholds. And a sign of his slide is that he thought of making such a radical stepthat will either make him leader for life or will eliminate him politically.

Since he suffered an overwhelming defeat in the 2024 municipal elections, mainly in conservative strongholds, Erdogan made a desperate shift to complete authoritarianism. Put on prison the Mayor of Constantinople, Imamoglou While security services have begun a nationwide repression, arresting other opposition mayors.

The allies that helped him rise to power, have abandoned him, and while in need of strong allies, -as the Kurds may be -this is a high -risk move that has no sure success rate.

At the same time Turkish public opinion is very cautious across the PKK, while the Kurds themselves are cautious across Turkish authorities.

Delivery of weapons and recognition of Kurds

A development is expected to take place tomorrow, Friday, when members of PKK they announced How will they start delivering their weapons to the city of Suleimaniya, northern Iraq.

And while Erdogan is constantly stressing the importance of reconciliation with the Kurds, for “a Turkey without terrorism”, he shows that he has awarenesssaying that his plan is in danger of “sabotage” from the interior of Turkey and the PKK ranks.

In his speech to Parliament on Wednesday, the Turkish President made sure to prevents any attacks by his political opponents: “Nowhere in efforts for a Turkey without terrorism, there is no, nor can there be a step that will tarnish the memory of our witnesses or injure their spirit,” he said. “With a view to the values ​​for which our witnesses made their sacrifices, God will, we save Turkey from a half -century calamity and completely remove the bloody bonds that entered our country.”.

In a message, prisoner Ocalan also said that the PKK movement and his attempt to establish a Kurdish state are now over, as his main demand to recognized the Kurds, has been satisfied.

“Our existence has been recognized, so our primary goal has been achieved. This is a voluntary transition from the phase of armed struggle in the phase of democratic policy and law. This is not a loss but should be regarded as historical achievement‘, reported in a video message on Wednesday.

From enemies, ‘friends’

The conflict with the Kurds is the most bitter in Turkey’s history.

Kurds say it is the larger population homelesswith millions of people in Iraq, Iran and Syria, while in Turkey they represent 15-20% of the population.

On the other hand, many Turks see the PKK, which for decades were in war with the Turkish state, as terrorist group and Ocalan, who has been in prison for about 26 years, As a murderer.

Known as ‘Apo’, Ocalan serve a life sentence For betrayal on the secluded island of Imrali, in the Marmara Sea, which is also described as “Alcatraz of Turkey”. PKK leader He was the only prisoner since 1999 to 2013-2015, When other Kurdish prisoners were transferred to the peacekeeping.

While Erdogan’s and his party’s policy is swinging between repression and reconciliation with the Kurds in the 22 years in power, Turkey’s hard -core nationalists have long denounced the PKK as “threatening“

Ocalan’s most sincere enemy is considered the supranationalist leader Devlet BachseliErdogan’s main ally.

In 2007, Bachseli had asked for the execution of Ocalanwhile about 10 years ago he had managed against Erdogan about the efforts he made to negotiate with the PKK.

However, the climate changed last Octoberwhen Bachseli said his party would agree with the conditional release of Ocalan, if he publicly renounced the National Assembly the armed action and invite the PKK members to hand over their weapons.

Politico comments that Bachseli’s turn is remarkable. It’s like Benjamin Netanyahu to address appeal to Hamashe says.

The result was on February 27, Ocalan with a public message calling for PKK to deliver the weapons and dissolve.

PKK met and declared the end of its armed struggle at May 12announcing that they “fulfilled their historical mission”.

The statement was made accepted by Ankara’s satisfactionbut Bachseli and Erdogan’s plan had not been completed. To reach a large deal, more Kurdish prisoners were sent to Ocalan’s prisons to expand his team.

Cautiousness

Nurkan Baisal, Kurdish Human Rights Activist said that Many Kurds remain cautious against the government.

“The government presents all this as a process for a Turkey without terrorism and is trying to limit it only to the PKK its weapons and dissolve. This is not peace! ”, told Politico.

According to him, Ocalan’s historical call to dissolve the PKK disappointed and several Kurdswhy he did not refer to his message in the culture, language, administrative rights and freedoms of the Kurds.

“This is felt in all Kurdish cities. There is no enthusiasm for this process. And a serious reason for that is that the Kurds They do not trust the Erdogan party government‘, noted.

This mutual distrust that exists is partially due to the failed initiatives of the past as well as that the agreement with Erdogan came in the midst of the great repression of the opposition.

Ipek Ozbey, a political commentator on the Sözcü TV channel, estimated that the Turkish government’s moves towards a Kurdish approach were neither honest nor promising.

“We cannot talk about democracy in an environment where elected officials are in prison … And the independence of justice is so much under discussion.”he said. “If there is no democracy, how will we democratize?”, He stressed.

Only Erdogan

From the government camp, Harun Armagan, Vice President of Foreign Affairs, admitted that Turkish public opinion remains cautiousness In the face of the agreement with the PKK, but described Erdogan as’only man ‘who could succeed.

As he told Politico, PKK came close to depositing weapons 10 years ago but ‘Due to the changing dynamics in Syria [όπου οι συμμαχικοί Κούρδοι μαχητές ήταν σε άνοδο]thought that the investing in war instead of peace would bring them to a more advantageous position“

“Ten years later, they have realized how big a mistake that was”, Armagan noted. “Whether the PKK will be disarmed and dissolved is something we will see together … Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the only leader in the Turkish Republic who could start such a process.”he stressed.

Baisal, the Kurdish human rights activist, estimates that developments in Syria are the main reason why the Turkish government began approaching the Kurds. Armagan, however, disagrees with it.

Forever president

As Politico notes, some observers believe that Erdogan uses the Kurdish to extends his stay in powertrying to recruit Kurdish MPs in his camp.

“And who doesn’t use the Kurdish? Some use it to rise to power and some to stay on it. “commented by Deputy Chairman of the DEM Party Group, Sezai Temeli.

Erdogan has already served three terms as president. To stay in his office may need to change the Constitution. Despite Bachseli’s support, the coalition of the Turkish president does not have a sufficient majority for a constitutional change, so the Erdogan can calculate the support of the Kurdish Members.

Turkish leader already speaks openly about a new constitution that will replace the 1980 Turkish map, which was drawn up by a military regime after a bloody coup.

“Turkey, for the first time in its history, has a real opportunity to compile its first political constitution. This is an important opportunity for all of us to build a more prosperous, fair and safe country. “ Armagan also said.

However, not everyone agrees with that, believing that changes in Constitution serve the President’s political ambitions.

“Erdogan will do everything to have another term as president and then become president of life”, Commented by Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

On the other hand, Bisal observes that Not all dependent on Erdogan’s ambitions.

“Erdogan is a politician who has the potential to use every issue to his advantage and will not hesitate to tool the Kurdish issue. He will definitely want to use it to extend his presidency ‘, He says and notes that he is not only the president who will decide.

Ultimately, whether the tragic conflict of the Kurds and Turkey will go into history – and if Erdogan will benefit from it – will largely depend on the Kurds themselves.

“I think the real issue here is not if he wants it himself, but if the Kurds want it‘concludes Baisal.

Edited by: Anastasia Kitsikosta