US President Donald Trump could quickly lift certain sanctions against Russia as a reward for Moscow, if peace talks with Ukraine evolve smoothly, but only Europe can take the most important measures needed to relieve its economic crisis.

In recent days, Trump has reiterated his threat of imposing more sanctions and duties on Russia and his oil buyers if there is no progress in a peaceful solution in the war that lasts more than 3 years in Ukraine. However, if the talks evolve positively, it could start to lift some of the punitive measures, Reuters notes.

Among Trump’s options are the release of the seized Russian assets, the resumption of US lending to Russian banks and companies, and the return of US oil companies to the remote oil fields of Russia.

Limited effect

However, without Europe’s cooperation, these measures will have a limited effect and the most detrimental sanctions – including mass restrictions on Russia’s global oil trade, which is the vital power of its economy – will remain in force.

Oil and gas revenue represents about a quarter of the total revenue of Russia’s federal budget. Revenue from this sector has been dramatically reduced, a painful result for Russia amid increased spending since its military campaign in Ukraine.

“The US is unilaterally much less to offer than Europeans who have no reason to give anything to Russia until they achieve a satisfactory solution for Ukraine,” said Craig Kennedy, a partner at the Russian and Eurasian Center.

The European Union has stressed that it intends to maintain pressure in Russia until Moscow ends the war.

What could Trump do

The biggest step that Trump could take would be to relax the sanctions of the Ministry of Finance that limit US service companies to oil fields from working in Russia, possibly allowing Russia to increase oil and gas production in some of its most difficult areas.

US and Russia officials have discussed the possibility that Exxon Mobil Xom.n will reintegrate into the Russian oil and gas project Sakhalin-1, according to a previous report by Reuters, citing sources. Sakhalin-1 has not so far been directly included in extensive US sanctions against Russian energy.

Officials also discussed the possibility of Russia to buy US equipment for its LNG projects, such as Arctic LNG 2, which is subject to sanctions, according to sources.

However, the fastest way to relieve Russia from the liquidity crisis would be for Europe to lift the ban on introduction of Russian oil transported by sea to the region. According to the international energy organization, Europe was the destination for almost half of Russia’s crude oil and oil exports before the invasion of Ukraine.

The reopening of this market would allow Russia to reduce the billions of dollars it pays for the transport of crude oil with tankers to China and India, which are now Russia’s main buyers.

But that doesn’t depend on Washington.

Europe should cooperate in any decision to remove the prices of prices imposed on Russian oil transactions, although the US could theoretically undermine it by stopping their own enforcement activities.

The ceiling, which the EU agreed to reduce in September from $ 60 a barrel to $ 47.60 a barrel, aims to reduce Moscow’s revenue without blocking global flows.

Frozen assets

The US and Europe have the opportunity to release the assets of the Russian Central Bank, but in this case Europe has a much greater influence.

The EU has about $ 230 billion from assets, while the US has detected about $ 5 billion from Russian assets in their banking system, according to Axios.

The return of these assets is one of the few moves that Trump could make without Congress. It could be done secretly through licenses by the Treasury, the details of which are not made public.

“The release of these funds will not go unnoticed by Russian President Vladimir Putin,” said Jeremy Paner, a partner of the law firm Hughes Hubbard & Reed and a former finance ministry’s sanctions researcher.

Europe also has the upper hand in reintegrating Russian banks to the global Swift Payment Network, which is based in Brussels and is subject to EU law.

The West could open the capital markets for lending to Russian banks and companies. However, according to Kennedy, it is unlikely that large US banks will pay big loans without the European banks.

“Historically, European banks have pioneered Russia, have expertise and willingness to take risks,” he said.