Opinion – Jaime Spitzcovsky: Former Middle East enemies reshape economic ties

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At the speed of light, in historical and diplomatic terms, the geopolitical scenario of the Middle East is changing, at a pace that defies even the most optimistic predictions about the construction of a dynamic of coexistence between Israel and Arab countries. This Friday (1st), for example, Israeli and United Arab Emirates representatives signed an unprecedented free trade agreement, after barely five months of negotiations.

The signing ceremony took place in Jerusalem, and a few days after another historic moment: the meeting, in Israel, of foreign ministers from five countries, in addition to the host: Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Bahrain and the USA. On the agenda, the strengthening of the Abraham Accords, signed in 2020 and responsible for the diplomatic caravan to redesign the Middle East.

And, in a regrettable and tragic historical pattern, terrorist attacks emerge as movements advance towards peace in the region. Three bombings on Israeli soil killed 11 people in about a week.

Violence, however, will be unable to stop the pacification process. The pillars of the normalization of relations between Israel and former enemies are deeply rooted, sustained by the reality imposed by the 21st century.

One factor explaining the new dynamic is called the Iranian theocratic regime. Since the 1979 revolution, Tehran has embarked on a project to expand its regional influence, fueling tensions with the conservative monarchies of the Persian Gulf, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and with Israel.

With security concerns amplified by Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Israeli and Gulf Arab leaders engaged in a secret dialogue years ago, the initial phase of the process to result in the Abraham Accords. The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan signed the treaty.

In addition to regional rivalries, there is an even more decisive factor in bringing former adversaries together: the post-oil era. Arab countries, dependent on the product for decades, chose to modernize and diversify their economies, in the face of the inevitable loss of relevance of the oil activity, in the midst of advances in the search for clean and renewable energy sources.

Israel, by offering technologies and economic dynamism, started to emerge as a valuable partner in the projects of permanence in power of several Arab regimes. And Egypt provides yet another example of the historic turn.

After the wars of 1948-9, 1956, 1967 and 1973, Egypt became the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel, in 1979. The Egyptian Anwar Sadat, the Israeli Menachem Beguin and the American Jimmy Carter.

However, for decades, Cairo opted for a “cold peace”, without investing in commercial and cultural relations. General Abdul al-Sisi, president since 2014, works to follow the example of the Persian Gulf monarchies and build an infrastructure of cooperation with Israel.

On March 22, Al-Sisi received, on Egyptian soil, the rulers Mohammed bin Zayed, of the United Arab Emirates, and Naftali Bennett, of Israel. Among the topics covered, consequences of the war in Ukraine on the food issue in the Middle East. Russian and Ukrainian sales used to account for 80% of the wheat imported into Cairo.

Pressured by the high international price of the product and fearful of its effects on the Egyptian economy, Al-Sisi is already in dialogue in search of help and solutions with the Emirates, Saudis and Qataris. And now, who knew, also with the Israeli neighbors.

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