F-35: Because their sale to Erdogan is more difficult than it seems

Stefanos Nikolaidis

His return Recep Tayyip Erdogan in White House For his meeting with his Donald Trumpbrought to the forefront the difficult equation of the US -Turkish relations.

With the F-35them S-400the energy from the Russia but also the crisis in Middle East At the table, the two leaders they talked about 2 hours In a climate that – at least communicatively – Trump made sure to show that he is “excellent”.

However, behind the cameras, the real difficulties are many.

To skai.gr speak three distinguished Greek analysts, Angel Syrigosthe Constantine Filis and the Alexandros Despotopouloswho unfold the backdrop, difficulties and extensions to Greece.

Angel Syrigos: “Obstacles everywhere, from the S-400 to the money”

THE Angel SyrigosProfessor of International Law and ND MP, speaking about the data around the Prospect of Acquisition F-35 by Turkeyclarifies that ”S-400 is the number one problem“

As he explains, the Anchor has to face a series of obstacles: Caatsa lawthat must pass through the Parliament and Senatethe influence of Israel and her Greece to Congressbut also the requirement of Trump to interrupt the market oil and gas. She also adds her “bomb” Halkbankbut also the question of financial capacity her Turkey. “I’m not sure that Erdogan has money right now to move on to something like that“

The professor acknowledges that the members of Congress have political burden, but raises the question of whether there is anyone who wants to clash with Trump: “Congress has the power to block Trump’s plans, but is there anyone so powerful to stand up? I don’t know. Trump will try it, but if he gets through Congress, I doubt. “

At the same time, he points out that the elections will act as a brake for an open conflict: “If it clashes with Trump and is a Republican, the black snake ate him in the upcoming elections.”

In terms of balance to AegeanMr Syrigos is clear. “If Ankara gets 100 F-35, clearly the balances change” However the question is When and How many will receive the Turkey. As he explains, if the neighboring country normally enters the production line‘will start receiving F-35 in 10 years from now” Only one grant by the US lines could hastening the surrender.

Finally, he stresses that ‘Trump can’t pass anything without the Congress“

But his advantage is the power and climate that causes. “No senator will come out to put them with him. Will be scared. Not that it will bypass the process of Congress; it will formally follow it. But essentially he has this upper hand ».

Konstantinos Filis: “Trump wants Erdogan closer to Israel”

The Director of the Institute of International Affairs (IGA) Constantine Filis focus more on great picture of US -Turkish relationsunderlining the way in which the Donald Trump handled communicatively the meeting with the Recep Tayyip Erdogan. As the US president notes “With what he said, he made Erdogan appear as one of the key interlocutors and by extension partners in the United States“

However, the substance is elsewhere. There are, according to him, issues that bring closer the two countriesbut also other major differences where continue to divide them. The main target of Trumpaccording to Mr. Filis, “is Erdogan to find a way of understanding Israel” Avoiding a new tension between Ankara and Tel Aviv regarded strategic importance for the Washington.

In terms of equipmentMr. Filis appears clear: The US president is not going to pave the way for the sale of F-35s with no exchange.

“Trump won’t give it all to Erdogan on the plate without conditions“, He emphasizes. In this context, one of the critical conditions that are put on is the gradual removal her Turkey by the Russian actionby limiting oil and gas imports.

Beyond Russian issueTrump seeks to ensure that the Anchor will be aligned with the American interests and on other fronts such as China. Even if there are speeding movements for the F-35‘The US president will seek to commit Erdogan to policies that will not affect American interests“, Explains Mr. Filis.

At the same time, he recalls that the Time factor He is not negligible. OR uncertainty around interim elections of 2026 to USA and the lobby opposed to the sale of F-35 to Turkeymake up a scene and additional obstacle.

Alexandros Despotopoulos: “Erdogan spent $ 50 billion on a photo”

The internationalist Alexandros Despotopoulos were particularly cautious as to whether the Trump -Erdogan meeting brings really closer her Turkey in F-35. As he noted, ‘I didn’t see anything that changed in the box and made it easier to sell F-35 from the US to Turkey“

In fact, he emphasized that in order to be able to do so, the sanctions caatsa as well as the law of budget of 2020something which means double approval from Parliament and Senate. “There is no procedure at this time when President Trump alone can overturn the current regime“, He said characteristically, reminding that the Democratic Senator Bob Menendez He had arranged to “lock” the issue in 2020.

At the same time, he pointed out the weight of the lobby to Washington. “There are many groups – Jewish, Greek, Armenian – that have a stable and tough attitude. It’s not so easy to get through. “

Mr. Despotopoulos highlighted the example her Indiawhich was also supplied S-400, but without being able to obtain F-35. “Trump went with a folder saying ‘come and get you out of export’, believing that there was a previous one. But that never accomplished“

Important by the same is the fact that neither at F-16 There was a clear commitment. “Turkey, while agreeing to acquire F-16s on Biden, has not yet taken them. Not even the F-16s, President Trump said anything about the F-16s. The reception was frozen on this issue. “

To the question of whether Congress can block the Trump designsappeared categorical. “I think we won’t even get to Congress level. The US president will not end up with such tension because of the Ukrainian. It would give the wrong signal that he closes his eyes to a Russian partner ».

In addition, she stressed the weight of her halkbank affairwhere – as he said – Turkish president won nothing. OR tough attitude her Washington shows, according to him, the intention of the USA to punish those who bypass sanctionswhether they relate to Iran either Russia.

Mr. Despotopoulos’s general estimate was probably frustrating for the Anchor. “I don’t think the Turks have a reason to be optimistic. I will adopt what the opposition said, that Erdogan spent $ 50 billion just to take a nice photo with Trump“

Finally, he highlighted the political dimension her meetingwith sharp observation.

“Think of the Greek prime minister and telling him Trump,” My friend Kyriakos who knows from re -elections “… or asking him to recognize the pseudo. What he said to Erdogan would not be able to withstand any other leadership. “

Inferencethe meeting in White House gave communication advantages in Turkish presidentbut without changing the hard data they hold ‘locked»Her sale of F-35. On the contrary, he re -shown the a lot of obstacles – From the Congress and sanctions up to lobby to Washington.

For the Greecethese developments confirm that the Anchor is not located near a easy upgrade of arsenal.

The question remains: How far Trump will get to pull Erdogan closer to the West – and at what cost for the balance of forces in the area.