Today is Nicolas Sarkozy’s first day in La Santé prison in Paris after he was sentenced last month to 5 years in prison for being part of a criminal organization. However, how likely is he to spend Christmas outside of prison?

His lawyers have already submitted a request for his release in the hope that the former head of state will be released as soon as possible.

Two months to consider the request

According to article 148-2 of the Code of Criminal Procedure, as with any other defendant, his application must be considered within two months. So his release from prison cannot be considered after December 21, 2025. And if the court’s answer is positive, Nicolas Sarkozy will be released before Christmas.

“What we know is that there will be no (…) preferential treatment” to speed up the process, the lawyer of the former President of the Republic, Christoph Ingrain, said on the set of BFMTV-RMC on Tuesday, minutes before his client was jailed.

However, it is unlikely that the courts will adhere to the maximum two-month deadline to consider this appeal. On BFMTV-RMC, Christoph Ingrain said he expects the former head of state to spend “three weeks to a month in custody” before the appeals court rules, which is “the average time” in this type of case.

“A night in jail is a night,” the lawyer continued, adding: “There is objectively no reason for the appeals court to deny this release, but the legal uncertainty is there and we will deal with it.”

Decision issued on the same day

Nicolas Sarkozy’s request for release from prison will not be examined with the same criteria as the arrest warrant.

“There is no risk of repeating the events, there is no risk of destruction of evidence – there is no evidence – and there is no risk of pressure on witnesses,” assured Christoph Ingrain.

The former president is expected to appear before the appeals court, which is considering his request, in a public hearing. In this case, he will be able to ask not to be handcuffed and not to appear in the dock. Although his request for parole could also be made via video conference from prison, that scenario remains unlikely.

The decision of the appeal court will be issued on the same day as the hearing. If the appeals court agrees to release him, Nicolas Sarkozy will be able to leave prison the same night or the next morning for essential reasons. After the hearing, he will have to return to the prison to collect his belongings and sign his release order.

An appeal trial in January 2026?

If the appeals court decides to keep him in custody, Nicolas Sarkozy will then be able to make new requests.

Meanwhile, the former president has appealed his conviction in the Libya financing case and a new trial is set to take place.

In this scenario, the Court of Appeal is required to hear the appeal within four months, which theoretically leads to January 25, 2026, with the decision having been issued on September 25. There is a subtle difference in this system. The texts provide that this four-month period can be renewed twice by rehearings. This means that this first four-month period can be extended to eight months (25 May 2026) or to 12 months (25 September 2026).

One more scenario is also possible. If Wahib Nacer and Alexandre Djhouri – the two other people in this case who were jailed after the first instance verdict – as well as Sarkozy are released in the meantime, the deadlines mentioned above are barred and the appeals court then has more time.

Added to this legal diary for the former head of state the Bygmalion affair.

The Court of Cassation is expected to rule on the former president’s appeal on November 26 after he was sentenced to one year in prison, of which he must serve six months.