Russia appears to have been deterred by NATO’s decisive response to violations of Polish and Estonian airspace last month, but Moscow is expected to continue testing the Alliance’s limits, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Aleksus Grinkevic, warned on Tuesday.

It is recalled that three Russian fighter jets violated Estonian airspace for 12 minutes on September 19. NATO flew fighter jets to intercept them, while Washington pledged to “defend every centimeter of NATO territory”.

Nine days earlier, more than 20 Russian drones violated Polish airspace. NATO jets shot down some of them, marking the first time a member of the alliance opened fire on Russian targets since the start of the war in Ukraine.

NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, in an interview on Tuesday with Reuters, noted that NATO’s responses sent a clear message to Moscow.

Russians ‘try to be more careful’

“We see that the Russians are trying to be more careful, that they realize that they have approached or crossed a line in some cases, especially if you take into account the incident with the drones in Poland,” said Aleksus Gringevich.

“It will have a deterrent effect, but they will continue to try to move and take hybrid approaches to challenge the Alliance,” he added.

In the case of Estonia, Russia’s defense ministry has denied that the Russian jets violated the country’s airspace, claiming they flew over neutral waters. In Poland’s case, Moscow said its drones were involved in attacks in Ukraine and were not targeting Poland.

After the planes left Estonian airspace, they “went very far and around Estonia,” Grinkevic said, adding: “In my view, this shows that they understood how we would respond, that we are capable of responding, and that they don’t want this situation to happen again.”

At the same time, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, referring to fierce Russian drone and missile attacks hitting Ukrainian cities and energy facilities ahead of winter, said the US would continue to supply Patriot missiles “at a pace that meets Ukrainian needs.”

Strengthen anti-drone systems

European powers believe Russia was likely involved in a spate of drone breaches in recent weeks, such as those that caused serious problems at airports in Denmark and Norway. Drones were also spotted over Danish oil facilities in the North Sea in September and affected Dutch military exercises in Poland.

Since the first Russian drone incursions in Poland on September 9, NATO member states have recorded at least 38 other incidents in Scandinavia, Belgium and the Baltic states, according to the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis.

Russia has repeatedly denied any connection to these incidents.

Dutch Defense Chief General Ono Eichelsheim said NATO would respond to Russian incursions, whether intentional or accidental, on its territory, and that the Alliance was working with Ukraine to counter them.

“The good thing is that (the Ukrainians) produce many anti-drone systems themselves. So what we have to do is give them the money to produce more,” Eichelsheim said after meetings with Grinkevich. “This is something we have to do in the next period to give them more capabilities to deal with drones,” he added.

The comments echo the European Commission’s proposal last week for four flagship European defense projects, including a counter-drone system and a plan to strengthen the eastern border, as part of an effort to prepare the continent to defend itself by 2030.

The defense policy “road map” reflects fears raised by the war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year, that Russia could attack an EU member in the coming years, and calls by US President Donald Trump for Europe to do more for its security.