Unthinkable until two months ago, before Russian invasion of Ukrainebut now a possibility, as even very probable: the Finland enters a crucial phase this week in terms of its candidacy for membership in the NATOwith its final selection expected at the end of June.
The Scandinavian government will release – as it is known, on Thursday – a “white paper” on the consequences of the new person revealed by its neighbor Russia.
The text, which was commissioned in early March, will mark the start of a parliamentary process and national dialogue that is likely to last several weeks, and the issue is also pressing for neighboring Sweden.
“We will have in-depth discussions, but they will not hold on” beyond what is needed, “Prime Minister Sanaa Marin said on Friday. “I think we will have completed our discussions before the end of June,” the young Social Democrat prime minister added.
“I estimate that the candidacy will be submitted sometime in May” to be decided at the NATO summit in Madrid in late June, “former Prime Minister Alexander Stump, a supporter of accession, told AFP.
THE Finland has multiplied consultations in recent weeks with virtually all member states of the 30-member Organization.
Like neighboring Sweden, the country has received clear assurances from NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg that the door is open and several expressions of support and consolation, from the US to Germany passing through France and the UK.
The reversal of public opinion is spectacular: opinion polls now show that 60% of Finns are in favor, twice as many as before the invasion. The percentage of those who oppose has dropped to 20%.
Although not everyone has expressed a position, a clear majority of parliamentarians are also in favor of joining NATO.
Like many of his colleagues, Center Party MP Jonas Konda previously said that “we did not need to” join the alliance, but that the Russian invasion of Ukraine “irreversibly changed Europe” and that “being a member of NATO would offer us more.” value in terms of security “.
Few MEPs, including Marcus Mustagiarvi of the Left Alliance, say Finland’s stay out of military alliances has brought “stability” to all of “northern Europe”.
The question remains what will be Moscow’s reaction. Vladimir Putin, for whom the red flag of NATO enlargement was one of the reasons he cited to justify the invasion of Ukraine, is facing the possibility of acquiring a new border with the 1,340-kilometer-long Atlantic Alliance.
Moscow is threatening Helsinki and Stockholm with “serious political, military and military consequences” if they join NATO, a warning repeated in recent weeks.
Finnish President Sauli Niinistστε acknowledged in late March that NATO membership could spark “impulsive” reactions from Moscow – government websites were the target of cyberattacks on Friday.
Members’ unanimity is required for NATO membership. Although Turkey’s support seems a given, according to Helsinki, Viktor Orban’s Hungary’s stance is unclear.
According to Finnish Foreign Minister Peka Haavisto, NATO says it takes four to twelve months to finalize a country’s accession. The process lasted 13 for Northern Macedonia, the state that most recently joined the military alliance in March 2020.
On paper, Finland, with a population of 5.5 million, is a dream candidate with a record number of reserves, a reflection of its constant vigilance against neighboring Russia.
“We can mobilize between 280,000 and 300,000 men and women in a few days,” Stump said.
After ordering 64 US F-35 fighter jets at the end of 2021, Finland will increase its military budget by a whopping 40% by 2026, above NATO’s 2% of GDP.
Once a Russian duchy, until its independence in 1917, Finland was invaded by the former Soviet Union in 1939, when a three-month “winter war” broke out in which the Finnish resistance was paralleled by that of the Ukrainians.
After the new conflict, the so-called “war of continuity” (1941-1944) with the Soviets, the Nordic country chose neutrality – necessarily for many – during the Cold War, the so-called “Finnishization”, under its watchful eye. Moscow.
The country did not join the EU and become a NATO partner despite the 1990s.
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