“The policies that I represent are the policies that are represented by Mr Trump. They are represented by Mr Putin.” That was Marine Le Pen speaking in 2017. In just two weeks, she could be elected President of France.
Le Pen, the standard-bearer of the French far right, is heading for the second round of the presidential election, when she will face President Emmanuel Macron. The first round of voting put Le Pen less than five percentage points behind Macron.
The fact that 57% of French voters opted for far-left or far-right candidates in the first round – while traditional centrist parties have plummeted – looks bad for an incumbent center president like Macron.
The first poll of voting intentions for the second round shows Macron beating Le Pen by 54% to 46%. This will reinforce the opinion that, although the competition is tight, a victory for Le Pen remains very unlikely. But the uncomfortable reality is that the far right in France today is reaching unprecedented heights in polls since 1945 — and a lot can happen in two weeks.
Instead of minimizing Le Pen’s chances, it’s time to seriously think about what his possible victory would mean for France and other countries. Is it still a “far right” politician? Or could a Le Pen presidency be less of a shock to the system than many realize?
The fact that Le Pen is so close to the presidency confirms his success in “detoxifying” his image. She broke up a few years ago with her father and party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen – who has a long history of outspoken racism. In this election, Marine campaigned generally on cost-of-living issues.
She abandoned some of the more controversial policies that helped to sink her 2017 campaign, such as calling for France to leave the euro and restoring the death penalty. And she has used the war in Ukraine to distance herself from Vladimir Putin, saying her opinion of the Russian leader has “changed”.
But previous admiration for Putin and Trump still holds sway. Like them, Le Pen claims to represent the people against the elite and the nation against the “globalists”. His slogan (“Give the country back to the French”) has strong echoes of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” and the “take back control” Brexit campaign.
Le Pen’s program still contains many appeals for the extreme right. His pledge to impose a complete ban on Muslim women wearing veils in public is markedly illiberal and would be unprecedented in Europe. She claims the police would be instructed to fine jihab users – which seems like a recipe for constant street clashes. Relations between the police and already strained communities of color or Muslims were likely to get much worse.
The French left will likely take to the streets in shock if Le Pen wins. France is still suffering the consequences of the “yellow vest” protests, which led to strikes, in 2018 and 2019. The country could again face social unrest. At the other end of the spectrum, financial markets could be startled by a Le Pen victory, adding to the sense of crisis.
A bitterly divided France would have implications for the whole of Europe. The direct consequences of a Le Pen presidency for the EU would also be serious (indeed, life threatening).
Over the years, French statesmen such as Jean Monnet, Robert Schuman and Jacques Delors were instrumental in building the European project. But Le Pen is determined to deconstruct Europe.
It promises to restore the primacy of French law over that of the EU, which is incompatible with membership in the union of 27 countries. She also promises to unilaterally cut France’s contributions to the EU budget.
Within Europe, Le Pen cultivated ties with the “illiberal democrats” of Hungary and Poland. She was quick to congratulate Viktor Orbán on the election earlier this month — despite the fact that he is accused by the EU of violating the rule of law, suppressing press freedom and practicing corruption. At the very least, Le Pen is unfazed by Orbán’s sins. At most, she considers them a model for France.
With Le Pen in control of France, Orbán’s declaration that his illiberal nationalism represents the future of Europe would suddenly seem more plausible. Matteo Salvini of Italy (who, like Le Pen, has cultivated Putin and Trump) would sniff out power.
Reactions in Brussels and Berlin to a Le Pen victory would be horrific—probably followed by negotiations. Unable to abandon the EU project, France’s partners would try to smooth the edges of Le Pen’s policies and somehow make them compatible with France’s continuation in the bloc.
The British government would watch with interest from the wings. Some hardline Brexit supporters would see a Le Pen victory as revenge and an opportunity. More sensitive voices in London will fear the implications for Western unity in the midst of the war in Ukraine.
Le Pen is not just an enemy of the EU. She also called NATO a “war organization” and promised to remove France from its command structure. And she opposes energy sanctions on Russia — ostensibly because they would raise the cost of living in France. Putin has had a disastrous few weeks. But French voters may still give him some hope.
