In Finland a key strategic report is published today after Russian invasion of Ukraineits prelude national dialogue for the country’s increasingly likely candidacy to NATO membership in the summer.
Paradoxically, the war waged by Moscow invoking the expansion of the Western military alliance to its gates raises the risk for it to push at least one of its neighboring countries to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in order to benefit from the crucial protection Article 5.
Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, the prospect of Helsinki choosing to break with its historic line of avoiding membership in any military alliance was a rhetorical figure, in the absence of adequate support.
In a few weeks, everything was overturned. Support for integration, which has not exceeded 20 to 30% for decades, has doubled to over 60%. The latest poll, published on Monday, wants positive opinions to reach 68%.
At the same time in parliament it is now deleted a clear majority in favor of NATO membershipafter the reversal of the position of parties which were opposed until recently.
Among the MPs who have already announced the position they would adopt in a possible vote, around one hundred are in favor and only 12 against (out of a total of 200), according to Finnish media.
The “white paper” on the strategic situation, which has been under way since the beginning of March, is being presented to the Finnish parliament today.
At the same time, Helsinki has stepped up consultations in recent weeks with most of the 30-member body, as well as Sweden, where the lines have also shifted dramatically in recent days in favor of a possible candidacy.
The Prime Minister of Finland, Sana Marin, whose Social Democrat party has historically opposed NATO membership, estimated last week that the dialogue would be completed by the summer. In other words, it may have ended before the NATO summit on June 29th and 30th in Madrid.
Analysts consider it very likely that the decision will actually be made in Spain.
The newest head of government in the European Union is going to Stockholm today, where he will have talks with his Swedish counterpart Eva Magdalena Anderson, also a Social Democrat and also less and less opposed to joining the alliance.
The Swedish Social Democrats announced on Monday that they are starting internal party dialogue on the issue. The far-right movement of the Sweden Democrats has for the first time spoken out in favor of NATO membership, if Finland so submits.
“For the Swedish Social Democrats, a change of mind (for NATO) is like a change of religion,” said former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stump. “I’m not talking about something like the transition from Protestantism to Catholicism, but about the transition from Christianity to Islam.”
THE NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg from Norwayhas repeatedly assured in recent weeks that the door is open for the two Nordic countries, already partners in the alliance since the end of the Cold War.
Several countries in the region, as well as the Baltic, are already members: Norway, Denmark and Iceland since the alliance was founded in 1949, Poland since 1999, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia since 2004.
In case of Finland’s accession, Russia’s land border with NATO countries will double at once, by 1,340 km.
According to Helsinki, NATO believes that they will be needed four to twelve months to make Finland the 31st Member State. It needs unanimous approval and ratification by the current Member States.
The question remains what will be Russia’s reaction. Moscow has warned Helsinki and Stockholm that there will be “serious political, military and military consequences” if they join NATO.
Finland, ordered at the end of 2021 64 American F-35 fighterswill jump by 40%, its military budget by 2026, above the 2% of GDP limit recommended by NATO.
Once a Russian duchy, until its independence in 1917, Finland was invaded by the former Soviet Union in 1939, when a three-month “winter war” broke out in which the Finnish resistance was paralleled by that of the Ukrainians.
After a new conflict, the so-called “war of continuity” (1941-1944) with the Soviets, the Nordic country chose neutrality – necessarily for many – during the Cold War, the so-called “Finnishization”, under its watchful eye. Moscow.
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