With about ten days to go before the second round of France’s presidential election, President and candidate Emmanuel Macron has taken a ten-point lead over the far-right Marine Le Pen. According to the Ipsos Sopra Steria poll released this Wednesday (13), the president has 55% of the intentions, against 45% of his rival, considering the valid votes.
The projection, although positive for the current president, points to a possible loss of ground in relation to the 2017 election, when the two disputed the second round. That year, Macron defeated Le Pen by 66% to 34% of valid votes.
Also, its position ahead is not so comfortable, as the poll’s margin of error is 3.2 percentage points. Another survey, carried out by the French Institute of Public Opinion (Ifop), points to a tighter result, of 53% against 47%.
Seeking re-election, Macron ended the first round last Sunday (10) with 27.8% of the vote, while Le Pen won 23.2%. In third place came the leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, with 22%, leading the candidates to now compete for the left-wing vote.
According to the same Ipsos poll, 37% of Mélenchon voters indicate that they should vote for Macron, while 18% should opt for Le Pen, and 45% did not want to speak out. The current president would also be the likely choice of 59% of voters of ecologist Yannick Jadot (4.6% in the first round) and 47% of those of right-wing Valérie Pécresse (4.8%).
Among those who opted for the far-right Éric Zemmour in the first round (7.1%), 81% should vote for Le Pen and only 4% for Macron.
Another point that the survey highlights is voter participation – in France, voting is not mandatory. According to the survey, 73% are certain that they will go to the polls, a figure slightly below that seen in the 2017 election, which had the participation of 74.6% of voters.
The abstention drew attention in the first round. Of the last 11 presidential elections in the country, which span a period of almost 60 years, this one had the second highest abstention rate. According to the Ministry of the Interior, 25.1% of French people did not turn up at the polls. The rate was not higher than that of the 2002 election, of 28.4%.
The poll surveyed 1,693 voters over the past three days, who answered the questions online. The methodology used was the so-called “rolling poll”, in which about 500 voters are interviewed per day.
