Despite the massive support recorded in polls for President Vladimir Putin, nearly two months after the Russian invaded Ukraine, signs of dissent are emerging even among the country’s political and economic elite.
This Tuesday, tycoon Oleg Tinkov took to Instagram to make a violent attack on the so-called special military operation, a Russian euphemism for war that, disrespected by independent media, has led to the virtual extinction of these media in Russia.
“Waking up with a hangover, the generals realized they have an army of s…” he wrote. “And how can an army be good if everything in the country is a s… and mired in nepotism, flattery and servility?”, he added.
He appealed to the “collective West” to “give Mr Putin a way out to save face and stop this massacre”. “Ninety percent of Russians are against this insane war,” he said. “Ten percent paint the Z [sÃmbolo da invasão] because they are idiots, but every country has 10% idiots.”
Tinkov, who lives in London and other European capitals, is one of Russia’s most famous entrepreneurs. He has been involved in initiatives ranging from restaurant chains and beer brands to technology companies, and, until he left the bank that bears his name in 2020, was one of Russia’s 15 richest men.
Old-fashioned Playboy, competed in cycling races in Europe. Despite his profile, he was never considered a classic oligarch, who made a career in the shadow of association with the state, despite being accused of fraud. Still, since 2017 he has been on the list of American oligarchs and, with the war, he suffered sanctions that prevented access to his assets, such as the megayacht La Datcha.
On Tuesday (19), another harsh criticism came from a policy very close to the Kremlin. Natalia Poklonskaia lived in Ukrainian Crimea when Putin annexed her in 2014. She became the attorney general for the new Russian region and later was elected a deputy for United Russia, the support party of Putin’s government.
In an interview with the popular YouTube channel Jivoi Gvozd (nail live, in Russian), Natalia said: “This letter Z symbolizes tragedy and mourning for both Russia and Ukraine. People are dying, houses and city have been destroyed, leaving millions of refugees. My two native countries are killing each other, and that’s not what I want,” he said.
She was reprimanded by her boss at the Russian foreign affairs agency, where she is deputy director. “OZ is a symbol of the liberation of Ukraine,” Yevgeny Primakov said on Wednesday. The Latin Z does not exist in the Cyrillic alphabet adopted by Russian, and the Ministry of Defense has made announcements that it symbolizes phrases such as “for victory”, which uses the equivalent Russian letter at the beginning.
There are other, less obvious signs of discontent here and there. Putin’s most famous and incendiary supporter on state TV, talk show host Vladimir Soloviev, questioned the circumstances of the loss of the cruiser Moskva, sunk last week by either Ukrainian missiles or a fire on board.
“You have to tell me how you managed to lose him. Tell me, what were you guys doing in that particular area of ​​the Black Sea at that time?” he said, without naming his accused — obviously, the Russian Navy.
Soloviev remains a loyal soldier of Putin’s, however, but the specific criticism reflects suggestions about dissatisfaction in the Kremlin itself over the course of the war. Of course, there is a lot of speculation and very little information, especially in the pro-Kiev Western press.
Be that as it may, in the judgment of close observers such as Sam Greene (King’s College London) and Russian political scientist Konstantin Frolov, these fractures in the Putin support edifice do not yet signify a structural risk.
The country’s elite is, after years of living in commensalism with the president, tied to his decisions for the time being. Furthermore, the country’s resistance to tough sanctions imposed over the war certainly provided a rhetorical platform for Putin in his clash with the West.
Meanwhile, the average Russian, according to state polls and also from the independent Centro Levada, continues to support the president, with levels above 80%.
He also approves of the war, but then the numbers are more dubious due to the public environment itself: a law passed shortly after the beginning of the conflict promises up to 15 years in prison for anyone who spreads what the Kremlin thinks is fake news about the military and its action.
The bulk of the Russian population is informed by state TV, while independent media have been either shut down or censored. The urban middle class, meanwhile, appeals to overseas-based sites via VPN, remote providers that escape government yoke, and social networks like Telegram.
