The ball is in China’s court. That is how, on more than one occasion, the British Alok Sharma, who will chair the COP26, addressed the chances of success of the meeting in Glasgow.
The Asian country is the largest emitter of CO2 of the world, with about 28% of the total. Mathematically, without China, there is no global climate agreement to justify this title.
But Beijing intends to play a leading role in Glasgow for good reasons. The country wants to take advantage of COP26 to give credibility to its claim to lead the global climate transition.
Glasgow will inevitably have a beauty contest stage, in which countries strive to do well in the photo, highlighting the wonders they do for the climate (while the planet heats up).
For that moment, China has the speech ready. This year alone, it launched the world’s largest carbon credit market and pledged to stop funding coal-fired plants abroad. The country is ahead in wind and solar energy. Invest in green hydrogen.
Furthermore, China knows it needs nuclear power. While many hesitate to take that route, Beijing steps on the accelerator, with 11 nuclear power plants under construction today. You will come out ahead. Others must follow, because the global climate transition will hardly do without nuclear energy.
Glasgow will also have its boxing ring moments, where countries accuse each other of not doing enough for the planet. The problem is always the other. Here, China also plays a leading role, being criticized by those who demand more ambition, while pointing the finger at those who have historically issued more, or at those who now have higher emissions per capita.
To qualify as a leader, however, China would have to be able to make more climate commitments and give credibility to its goals. The question is whether Beijing could anticipate deadlines to start reducing emissions or achieving climate neutrality, set for 2030 and 2060, respectively.
Furthermore, China’s stance in the Glasgow negotiations matters. On the table are mainly issues related to financing to help developing countries through the climate transition, as well as parameters for an international carbon market. The risk is that negotiators –from different countries– resort to the classic logic: offering almost nothing and wanting too much from others.
If that’s the case, Glasgow will be the stage for this mix of theater and poker game, in which countries pretend they’re really negotiating, but in the end bluff to see if the other side blinks. In the real world, everyone loses. China would need to help avoid this scenario.
China’s leadership ambitions benefit from weaknesses in the American position. There are forces in Congress eating away at Joe Biden’s climate claims. Furthermore, the inconsistency of the US position over time undermines its credibility in the climate agenda. With trumpism lurking, denial is poised to return—and the world knows it.
China has its feet of clay there. Not just because of high emission levels, but because the country’s current energy crisis highlights the brutal dependence on coal and calls into question the credibility of China’s goals.
Geopolitical calculations also tend to undermine Chinese (and American) environmental ambitions, to the detriment of the planet, but also of China’s leading position on this agenda.
In 2017, China already said it wanted to be “a participant, contributor and leader” on this agenda. For Beijing, there is no contradiction between being the largest emitter of CO2 of the world and lead the global climate transition.
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