Russia has intensified attacks on Odessa, Ukraine’s main port, which lies in the country’s southwest and is key to controlling the country’s Black Sea coast.
Ukraine’s fourth-largest city, with a population of nearly 1 million before the war started by Vladimir Putin on February 24, so far Odessa has been relatively spared by the Russians.
Over the weekend, however, there were high-precision Onix missile attacks, launched by Bastion coastal systems based in Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014. across Europe were destroyed.
On Monday (2), it was the turn of a Russian rocket, according to the Odessa government, to destroy the road-rail bridge that connects the city to the homonymous administrative region, southwest of the centre. It is the main link between that area and the rest of Ukraine, passing through the estuary of the Dniester River. In addition, the city government said there was another missile attack on inhabited areas, injuring and killing an uncertain number of people.
The actions could signal a preview of what a Russian general revealed two weeks ago at an event: that Moscow wants to take the Donbass (Russian-speaking east) and the entire Black Sea coast, linking Crimea and the breakaway Russian region of Russia along the way. Transnistria, Moldova, which is at the western end of this map.
So far, with the capture of Mariupol with the exception of the pocket of resistance in a steel mill, the Russians have managed to establish the link as far as Mikolaiv. With that, the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov, a subdivision of the Black Sea, is under their control.
They established, from Kherson, the first major city they took in the war, a local government and now they intend to invent a plebiscite seen in Kiev as fraudulent to emancipate the region.
Last week, attacks on pro-Kremlin positions in Transnistria led to fears that Moscow could bolster its forces at the site, now down to just 1,500 soldiers, to launch a multiple attack on Odessa – which is a mere 70km west of the border. breakaway area.
That could be supported by an amphibious landing, and the sight of Russian ships on the Odessa horizon is a constant, though the loss of the heavy cruiser Moskva last month and two patrol boats this Monday raises the question of how much naval risk the Russians have. are willing to run.
All of this makes sense, but the actions could also just be a diversion for Ukraine’s Armed Forces, which are focused on defending their positions in what’s left of Donbass unoccupied by Russians or Russian-speaking separatists, who have been waging a civil war there since 2014 with the support of from Moscow.
As the entire Kremlin move has even been announced, there is little surprise in the works: the Russians are trying to envelop the center of Ukrainian troops in the region. Over the weekend, they made advances that suggested that they were slowly establishing that pincer to the north — missing an offensive from the already more controlled south.
The point is that the Ukrainians are resisting for now. Apparently, according to videos circulating on the country’s military channels on Telegram, the credit could be given to the American 155 mm howitzers donated by Washington to bomb Russian positions. According to the Pentagon, by Friday (29) 72 of the 90 pieces of artillery promised had already been positioned in the Donbass.
It is too early to say whether they will change the course of the Russian offensive as portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons did in the early stages of the war, when Moscow launched an ambitious low-powered attack on several fronts and ultimately failed to overthrow the Kiev government.
A report leaked by the Pentagon to American media, The New York Times ahead, suggests that the situation worries Moscow. According to him, the Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, General Vasili Gerasimov, secretly visited fighting points on the front between occupied Donbass and Ukraine.
If confirmed, it is a sign that Putin’s military operation is under close scrutiny. While it is common for Russian generals to participate in their wars in outposts, so much so that nearly ten have already been killed in this conflict, it is rare for someone of Gerasimov’s stature to do so.
He is the third man in the Russian military hierarchy, behind Putin and Minister Sergei Choigu (Defense), and the main, career commander of the country (Choigu is not a military man by origin). Continuing with the reports, rumors surfaced in the Ukrainian blogosphere that Gerasimov had been wounded in an attack during his visit, which is unfathomable at this point.
The presence of Western weapons, reinforced by the American pledge to establish a large loan program that could even involve fighter jets, is one of the main political sticking points of the war today. Russia speaks openly of the risk of escalation into World War III, which has been seen as a bluff in the West.
