Ukraine’s government said on Thursday that it plans to stay in defensive mode against the Russian invasion of its territory, which enters its 11th week, at least until mid-June.
After that, presidential adviser Oleskii Arestovitch told Reuters, the influx of heavy weapons and aid from the West could change the scenario. That is, for the first time Kiev openly talks about a counter-offensive to expel Vladimir Putin’s forces from its territory.
Rhetoric is rhetoric, of course, and so far the Ukrainians have only managed to reconquer areas when the Russians have given up the fight, due to lack of human resources and logistical problems. This was what happened around Kiev and in the north of the country, and it was a victory for the government of Volodymyr Zelensky, but it resulted from both the resistance of the attacked and the incompetence of the invader.
What Arestovitch suggests is different. In the first phase of the war, the large supply of portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, in addition to the gigantic sharing of intelligence by the United States on Russian movements, allowed an effective asymmetrical war for Ukraine.
Now, with the center of the fighting shifted more coherently and less dispersed by Moscow to the Donbass (east) and southern Ukraine, aiming to neutralize the core of Kiev’s forces in the east-central part of the country, Zelensky depends on the new Western effort: to deliver weapons suitable for combat by forces in maneuver.
Dozens of American howitzers are already in Ukraine and many more are promised, including perhaps fighter jets and heavy tanks — Poland has already donated 200 old Soviet T-72 models to its neighbour, numerically a quarter of Ukraine’s pre-war force. Joe Biden’s administration has won Congressional authorization to send up to $20 billion in military aid, five times Ukraine’s annual defense budget in 2021.
On Thursday, a donors’ conference in Warsaw raised €6 billion (R$31.5 billion), but it was not specified how much of that is pure military aid – which is already close to US$ 10 billion (R$ 50 billion), if not more, since the beginning of the war on 24 February.
Even the online crowdfunding Zelenski has already appealed, launching a worldwide campaign this Thursday. “In just one click, you can donate funds to help our defenders, save our civilians and rebuild Ukraine,” Zelensky said in English in the United24 platform’s presentation video.
Moscow, of course, sees the moves as proof that its war is not just against Ukraine, but also a direct clash with NATO (US-led military alliance) forces. This generates the constant quotes by Russian authorities, but also in the West, about the risk of an escalation that leads to the Third World War.
For now, reactions are measured. This Thursday, when commenting on a report by The New York Times showing that the ten Russian generals killed in the war so far, in the Western account, were killed with the help of American intelligence data, the Kremlin spokesman was phlegmatic.
“Our military is well aware that the US, UK and NATO as a whole are constantly transmitting intelligence and other parameters to the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” said Dmitri Peskov.
For him, the supply of weapons and data “does not contribute to the rapid completion of the operation [russa]but at the same time they are not capable of preventing the achievement of the established objectives”.
Meanwhile, the conflict remains fierce. There has been an increase in the intensity of Russian attacks in the northern Kharkiv region. In Mariupol, a symbol city of the brutality of the war, the Russians announced a three-day ceasefire to evacuate the last civilians in the rubble of the Azovstal steel complex, while unconfirmed fighting with the remaining Ukrainian forces continues.
In practice, however, the port on the Sea of ​​Azov is already Russian. On Thursday, Russian TVs showed signs in Ukrainian and English on the region’s roads being replaced by signs in Russian.
