For years, Vladimir Putin’s attachment to dates associated with the patriotic calendar he promotes in Russia was seen as an eccentricity consistent with his political discourse. On Victory Day 2022, to be celebrated this Monday (9), this perception gave way to apprehension inside and outside the country.
The reason, of course, is the Ukrainian War. The invasion of the neighboring country, on February 24, took place in the early hours of another military holiday, Defender of the Homeland Day.
That night, the Moscow sky received visitors at night with the red of fireworks that would be a harbinger of what would tragically be seen in Ukrainian cities.
Victory Day, however, is even more special. This year, the date will celebrate the 77th anniversary of the Allied victory over Nazi Germany. The surrender had been signed by General Alfred Jodl on the 8th, but it was past midnight in the Soviet Union. The country of which Russia is the legal heir was the biggest contributor to the bloodshed of the conflict: 40% of the estimated 70 million dead were Soviets, and nearly 70% of Russian families lost a relative in what is called the Great Patriotic War there. .
Putin, who took over as premier in August 1999 and never left power, having been president for four terms (2000-2004, 2004-2008, 2012-2018 and 2018 until 2024) and an all-powerful prime minister from 2008 to 2012 , reconstructed the Russian national image based on the historical example.
Thus, if communism was criticized, it turned Soviet achievements in the war into untouchable pieces: there are laws criminalizing anyone who does what is considered historical revisionism. National dates took on a similar stature as they did in Soviet times, with increasingly grandiose parades on the 9th of May.
Therefore, the idea that Putin will make some bombastic announcement in this parade was taken for granted.
What is known so far, officially, is that there will be special emphasis on the message to the West, with the presentation of weapons that would be associated with a Third War: the usual missiles and bombers with nuclear capability and also the plane on which Putin will board if a atomic conflict begins. Other speculations so far have been peremptorily dismissed by the Kremlin, which is to say little given the recent history of denials of the invasion of Ukraine.
In the community of Russian military analysts, close to the Armed Forces establishment that are suffering hard in Ukraine, the idea circulates that the Russian leader will be able to determine a national mobilization and assume that he is at war, not in a “special military operation”, as if says in the Kremlin.
Such a version is anchored in the failure so far to bring home a satisfactory result. The initial phase of the invasion, cluttered with diffuse foci and little ground force employed, is a source of shame among these observers. The current one, concentrated in Donbass (east) and in the south of the country, seems more coherent, but according to analysts it suffers from the same problem of lack of human resources.
The difficulty would be resolved legally with the call-up of conscript troops and perhaps reservists, which the special operation does not provide for. On the other hand, some of the analysts believe that Putin does not want the escalation so as not to further jeopardize the country’s image in the event of failure.
A variant of this version said that Putin would try to conquer the objectives in Donbass in time to claim victory. Militarily, it is not possible, given that the fighting is in full swing and, in the opinion of Western institutes and Russian analysts, there is nothing like a Ukrainian defeat in the east at hand.
But it is not impossible to create a political pantomime, in which Putin announces something like a “liberation”, compulsory quotes, of the peoples of the Donbass. He already recognized the two self-proclaimed republics as independent in 2014 and which have been in civil war with Kiev since then, and their protection “on request”, again in quotes, was one of the stated reasons for the invasion.
Such a maneuver could be fattened with an announcement of annexation of these territories, perhaps with the inclusion of a third republic, that of Kherson, the Ukrainian region between the Donbass and Crimea annexed in 2014.
The Russians control this entire region today, with the exception of the pocket of resistance at the Azovstal plant in the ruins of Mariupol. It’s called New Russia, a fetish of the country’s ultranationalists. Signs of an absorption abound: there are reports of a referendum being prepared in Kherson, the eponymous capital, and this week road signs in the region were given signs in Russian instead of Ukrainian and English.
Finally, there is a more delusional hypothesis, that Putin would declare Russia at war with NATO, the military alliance of the West. The argument is easy to find, given the bellicosity with which the United States has addressed the issue, both via economic sanctions and increasing military support for Kiev.
Rationally, this should not happen, given that it would be a mutual death sentence: conventional combat would be priceless for Moscow, and a nuclear exchange would mean the end of the country.
As Putin can have raptures, such as carrying out the attack on Ukraine, the flea follows behind the Western ear. But a scenario of the use of nuclear weapons, whether against Ukraine or in World War III, is more about the idea that Russian defeat is inevitable — and that is not on the table at the moment.
As the Russian president demonstrated in February, the fact is that almost no one knows what’s on his mind. Nothing prevents the parade from being merely a dubious celebration of Russian military might and fallen soldiers in Ukraine, with the nuclear threat veiled to the West. So, until the last tank leaves Red Square on Monday, the world must hold its breath once more.
