A day after Finland announced its request to join NATO, the parliament of neighboring Sweden released a report considered vital for taking the same step in which it considers that the measure will bring security, but in which it admits risks of retaliation from Russia.
The perception that Moscow represents a real threat has increased brutally in the two Nordic countries, neighbors even bordering in the Finnish case of Vladimir Putin’s land, after the invasion of Ukraine by Kremlin forces.
“An accession will have a deterrent effect in northern Europe,” reads the 43-page text, prepared by the government and the parties represented in Parliament. The text states that “Russian provocations and reprisals cannot be excluded” by the measure, but that the risk is low.
“Our view is that we will not suffer a conventional military attack as a reaction to an eventual candidacy,” said Chancellor Ann Linde. The report paves the way for Parliament’s approval of the request
The recommendation, which was not explicit, however, should be followed by a change in the historical position of the country’s main party, the Social Democrat, which publishes its opinion on membership on Sunday (15). There is already a majority in the House and in public opinion in favor of the measure, whose approval should happen perhaps on the same day or next week.
Once taken, the decision will reverse more than 200 years of history. Sweden prided itself on its neutrality, decided in 1809 after the loss of Finland to the Russian Empire in one of its many conflicts. Finland, on the other hand, was neutral since the end of World War II, in which it fought twice against the Soviet Union.
Russia has taken a threatening tone about Finland’s accession, and it will do the same with Sweden. The Kremlin has said that membership is a risk to Russian national security, a bleak terminology as it harks back to rhetoric against Ukraine’s eventual membership of NATO before the war.
The most likely measure, according to military observers, is the official deployment of nuclear-capable missiles to Kaliningrad, the Russian region squeezed between Lithuania and Poland, on the edge of the same Baltic Sea that borders Sweden and Finland. Stockholm has already said that this would not mean much, considering that the Russians already have these weapons there.
NATO, in the figure of Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, celebrated the Finnish announcement and already said it expected the Swede. Both requests, if there is no twist in the Swedish case, will be officially analyzed at the June summit of the Western military alliance in Madrid.
The question that remains is about the provisional security guarantees, since a NATO accession process lasts from eight months to two years, normally, after formal registration. Nobody wants to wait that long, especially if Putin manages to end the war against Kiev without exhausting his strength.
The Nordic countries’ decision is yet another extreme geopolitical effect of the war, which began on February 24. The entire European security structure is undergoing reorganization, and differences of interests among NATO members are emerging day by day, although the alliance has renewed its sense of mission.
Since then, Russia has been subject to economic sanctions never seen before in modern times, the entire European energy framework is in jeopardy, NATO has heavily armed Ukraine and risked a Third World War in the process, Germany has announced a of remilitarization and China regards the situation of its ally Moscow as a mixture of concern and ambition in a polarized world.
Despite the official attitude, neither Sweden nor Finland are completely neutral. Both are members of the European Union, a political bloc that has a clause in its founding treaty that provides for military assistance to colleagues in the event of aggression. But this was never used.
In the case of Sweden, a country much more developed and militarily incisive than Finland, there are other implications for membership. Over the years, Stockholm has always sought to act in line with Western strategy, participating in joint military maneuvers and sharing intelligence.
But, at the same time, it has always sought to have its own advanced defense industry. It has naval and aerospace production, as evidenced by the Saab Gripen fighter jets purchased by Brazil, and around 85% of its revenue comes from exports. Joining NATO means entering a grand bazaar where the current 30 members are supposed to use weapons and systems that are compatible with each other.
This could favor the export of products such as the NLAW anti-tank rocket launchers, stars in the Ukrainian War, but there are doubts about the impact, for example, on the sale of the Gripen. The American F-35 fighter has already beaten the Swedish in two recent bids, including one for the supply of 64 aircraft to Finland, and has established itself as the standard in the western bloc.
