Scientists are beginning to raise concerns about the possibility of a new epidemic, as Outbreaks appear to be exacerbated in at least seven countries and are on the rise. It follows in the form of questions and answers, based mainly on New Scientista summary of what we know so far:
What is this disease?
It is a relatively rare disease caused by a virus (Poxvirus), which belongs to the same family as the smallpox virus. The disease usually spreads to monkeys in Central and West Africa, where it is endemic, but periodically “jumps” to humans, having to date caused small outbreaks. It was first detected in laboratory monkeys in 1958. The first case of human infection was recorded in the Republic of the Congo in 1970.
How many incidents have there been during the current outbreak?
Thirty-five cases and 72 other suspects have been confirmed worldwide, according to a database created by Maurice Kremer of Oxford University and John Brownstein of Harvard Medical School. Confirmed cases have been found in Britain, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Belgium, USA and Canada. Scientists estimate that this is probably just the “tip of the iceberg” and that there are many more undiagnosed cases.
Are all cases related?
This is not clear. Cases have been found that are associated with another known case, but also others without any (at least known) correlation. The United Kingdom Security Agency (UKHSA) now estimates that the virus is spreading from person to person in countries with confirmed cases. Many are gay and bisexual men, so health officials are urging people with this sexual orientation to look out for any rashes or other suspicious symptoms so they can see a doctor in time.
How does the disease spread?
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), it can be transmitted by inhaling infected particles and by contact with skin rashes or virus-infected materials. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), human-to-human transmission is thought to occur primarily through large particles that do not travel far, so prolonged close face-to-face contact must be required to infect.
The virus is not considered to be easily spread among humans and, according to the UKHSA, the risk of infecting the population ‘remains low’. The disease can also be spread through contact with clothing, towels, sheets or other objects of an infected person. It is not considered a sexually transmitted disease, but it can be more easily transmitted through sexual contact through the skin.
It can also be transmitted from an infected animal to a human if one is bitten by it or touches its blood, body fluids, rashes, etc., or if it eats poorly cooked meat of such an animal.
What are the symptoms?
They include fever, headache, muscle aches, back pain, swollen lymph nodes, chills and exhaustion. Rash can also occur, first on the face and then on other parts of the body, including the genitals. The rash initially looks like that of chickenpox.
How deadly are they?
The disease is usually mild and most patients recover within a few weeks without treatment. In Africa, it can kill up to 10% of people infected, but this, according to the WHO, affects one of the two most dangerous strains in the Congo, while the other, a West African strain, kills one. per 100 patients. So far, genetic analysis has identified only the second West African strain in Britain, but there is no corresponding sequencing data from other countries.
The above death rates are proportional to the confirmed cases, but since there are probably several more mild cases that go unnoticed, the actual mortality of the disease is estimated to be significantly lower. According to the WHO, children are more at risk of becoming seriously ill than adults. Infection of a pregnant woman can also lead to pregnancy complications and even stillbirth.
Are there any treatments or vaccines?
Yes. The antiviral drug tecovirimat (Tpoxx) has been approved in the US and Europe against this disease and vaccinia in animals. The drug significantly reduces the chance of death. There is also the Jynneos vaccine (also known as Imvanex and Imvamune), also approved in the US and Europe, which prevents infection in adults. In addition, those who are old enough to be vaccinated against smallpox still have some protection.
Have there been outbreaks outside Africa in the past?
There have been several such outbreaks, but they usually involved only a few cases at a time and with a very limited geographical spread.
So is the current outbreak the biggest that has ever happened?
No. There were more cases in Africa, such as in 2001 and 2002, when 485 cases and 25 deaths were reported in the Republic of the Congo. In 2017 and 2018, 122 confirmed or possible cases and seven deaths were reported in Nigeria.
Could the current outbreak be caused by a new strain of the virus?
It remains unknown. However, the fact that so many cases are detected in different countries, shows that this is a more contagious strain than others in the past. Although there is a possibility that merely random events, such as the presence of super-transmitters, may have helped an older strain of the virus to spread more widely. It is too early to draw a definitive conclusion. Genetic analysis of more samples from cases will reveal if it is a different strain.
Is a new pandemic likely to occur?
The scientists’ assessment is that the new outbreak can be controlled by tracking contacts and vaccinating those thought to be at risk of infection. Although they do not completely rule out a pandemic, they do not consider it possible and do not consider it to be on the same level as the coronavirus.
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